Anaitasuna vs Alaves prediction & stats
Anaitasuna stats & fixtures · Alaves stats & fixtures
Anaitasuna take on Alaves in the Copa del Rey (Round of 128) on 3 November 2026. The Ghost makes Alaves favourites at 85%, with the draw at 11%. The likeliest score is 0–3, at 12.3%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 44%.
Anaitasuna vs Alaves prediction
The Ghost: Alaves to win, 85%; the call made for the original date was voided
- 4%Anaitasuna fair odds 25.81
- 11%Draw fair odds 8.86
- 85%Alaves fair odds 1.18
Most likely score 0-3 (12.3%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Alaves to score about 2.4 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.
Medium confidence — Fitted on 26955 matches.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Anaitasuna
Attack 1.09 · Defence 1.03
Last five: WWLWL, scored 15, conceded 9
Alaves
Attack 2.09 · Defence 0.43
Last five: LDLLD, scored 4, conceded 11
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Anaitasuna has had 28 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 0-3 (12%). Confidence: Medium.
Flags and warnings
Nothing unusual behind these numbers.
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Anaitasuna attack scores 9% more than average, against Alaves defence, which lets in 57% fewer than average: 0.81 goals (an average side here: 1.73)
- Alaves attack scores 109% more than average, against Anaitasuna defence, which lets in 3% more than average: 2.83 goals (an average side here: 1.31)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Anaitasuna 0.60, Alaves 3.04.
Ratings from 28 matches for Anaitasuna and 124 for Alaves, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Both teams have scored in 7 of Alaves’s last 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 97% | 1.03 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | 1.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 1.42 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 2.02 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 30% | 3.31 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 3% | 30.93 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12% | 8.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29% | 3.39 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 51% | 1.98 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 44% | 2.30 |
| Both teams to score: No | 56% | 1.77 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 0–3 12.3%
- 0–2 12.1%
- 0–4 9.4%
- 1–3 7.4%
- 0–1 7.3%
- 1–2 7.3%
- 0–5 5.7%
- 1–4 5.6%
Team news & lineups
Anaitasuna
No lineup published yet.
Alaves
- 21 A. Rebbach Defender
- 15 L. Boyé Attacker
- 1 Sivera Goalkeeper
- 14 N. Tenaglia Defender
- 16 V. Koski Defender
- 7 A. Perez Midfielder
- 17 Jonny Defender
- 2 N. Valentini Defender
- 19 Pablo Ibáñez Midfielder
- 8 Antonio Blanco Midfielder
- 4 Denis Suárez Midfielder
Form guide
Anaitasuna at home
1–0–0 in 1 match
- Scored
- 5.0 per game
- Conceded
- 0.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 1
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Based on 1 match — treat these numbers lightly.
Alaves away
2–4–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.1 per game
- Conceded
- 1.7 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 4.1 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.9 per game
55% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 99% | 1.01 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 96% | 1.04 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 96% | 1.04 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 95% | 1.05 |
| Home/Away double chance | 89% | 1.13 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 85% | 1.18 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 81% | 1.24 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 68% | 1.48 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 59% | 1.70 |
| Away clean sheet | 55% | 1.82 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 45% | 2.22 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 32% | 3.09 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 15% | 6.60 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 15% | 6.60 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 12% | 8.23 |
| Home clean sheet | 5% | 21.02 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 4% | 25.81 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 2% | 43.46 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 1% | 100.55 |