Tromso vs Haugesund result

Goals and cards

1. 7' Goal L. Hien (assist D. Edvardsson) Tromso
2. 20' Yellow card I. Dahlqvist Tromso
3. 34' Goal L. Hien (assist L. Olden Larsen) Tromso
4. 74' Goal A. Grindhaug Haugesund
5. 87' Yellow card R. Schifferl Haugesund
6. 88' Yellow card S. Heltne Nilsen Haugesund
7. 90+1' Yellow card D. Edvardsson Tromso
8. 90+2' Goal R. Schifferl (assist E. Rohd) Haugesund
9. 90+4' Goal R. Jenssen (assist S. Innvær) Tromso

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Tromso to score about 1.4 more and playing at home is worth roughly 28% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.28× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: Tromso won 4, 0 drawn, Haugesund won 2. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 2-1 (9%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Tromso attack scores 109% more than average, against Haugesund defence, which lets in 54% fewer than average: 2.59 goals (an average side here: 2.68)
• Haugesund attack scores 109% more than average, against Tromso defence, which lets in 66% fewer than average: 1.49 goals (an average side here: 2.09)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Tromso 2.74, Haugesund 1.33.

Ratings from 99 matches for Tromso and 100 for Haugesund, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Haugesund score 2.5 a game — 80th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 7 of Haugesund’s last 10.
• Haugesund have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 10.6

Tromso 7.2 · Haugesund 3.4

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (224 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 2–1 8.5%
2. 3–1 7.8%
3. 1–1 7.0%
4. 2–0 6.4%
5. 3–0 5.8%
6. 2–2 5.7%
7. 4–1 5.3%
8. 3–2 5.2%