Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard match stats & report

Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard match statistics

• 60% Ball possession 40%
• 19 Total shots 14
• 6 Shots on target 5
• 10 Shots off target 3
• 3 Blocked shots 6
• 13 Shots inside the box 11
• 5 Corners 9
• 12 Fouls 26
• 3 Offsides 1
• 1 Yellow cards 3
• 680 Passes 469
• 87% Pass accuracy 75%
• 4 Goalkeeper saves 4

Goals and cards

1. 12' Yellow card N. Verschuren Sparta Rotterdam
2. 15' Goal M. Zonneveld (assist I. Babadi) Sparta Rotterdam
3. 62' Goal K. Peterson (assist S. Wylin) Fortuna Sittard
4. 64' Yellow card D. Sinkgraven Fortuna Sittard
5. 67' Goal L. Zeefuik (assist S. van Ottele) Fortuna Sittard
6. 90' Goal M. Zonneveld (assist M. Young) Sparta Rotterdam
7. 90+5' Yellow card Justin Quincy Hubner Fortuna Sittard
8. 117' Yellow card N. de Groot Fortuna Sittard

Penalty shoot-out: 2–3

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Sparta Rotterdam to score about 0.4 more and playing at home is worth roughly 18% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 5327 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.18× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam won 3, 3 drawn, Fortuna Sittard won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Sparta Rotterdam attack scores 61% more than average, against Fortuna Sittard defence, which lets in 53% fewer than average: 1.74 goals (an average side here: 2.30)
• Fortuna Sittard attack scores 58% more than average, against Sparta Rotterdam defence, which lets in 52% fewer than average: 1.47 goals (an average side here: 1.95)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Sparta Rotterdam 1.78, Fortuna Sittard 1.43.

Ratings from 110 matches for Sparta Rotterdam and 110 for Fortuna Sittard, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Both teams have scored in 9 of Fortuna Sittard’s last 10.
• Fortuna Sittard win 2.1 corners a game — 16th percentile in this competition.
• Fortuna Sittard have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 11.0

Sparta Rotterdam 6.8 · Fortuna Sittard 4.2

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (354 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 11.6%
2. 2–1 9.2%
3. 1–2 7.3%
4. 2–2 6.5%
5. 2–0 6.4%
6. 1–0 5.9%
7. 3–1 5.4%
8. 0–0 5.4%