Yeni Orduspor vs 1461 Trabzon FK result

Goals and cards

1. 25' Goal C. Bozkurt 1461 Trabzon FK
2. 29' Goal S. Polat 1461 Trabzon FK

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Yeni Orduspor to score about 1.2 more and playing at home is worth roughly 23% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.23× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (10%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Yeni Orduspor has a new coach, C. Erçevik, for its last 3 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• 1461 Trabzon FK has a new coach, N. Yılmaz, for its last 2 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Yeni Orduspor attack scores 36% more than average, against 1461 Trabzon FK defence, which lets in 14% fewer than average: 2.09 goals (an average side here: 1.79)
• 1461 Trabzon FK attack scores 11% more than average, against Yeni Orduspor defence, which lets in 30% fewer than average: 1.13 goals (an average side here: 1.46)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Yeni Orduspor 2.23, 1461 Trabzon FK 1.00.

Ratings from 108 matches for Yeni Orduspor and 111 for 1461 Trabzon FK, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Yeni Orduspor score 2.2 a game — 86th percentile in this competition.
• 1461 Trabzon FK have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 10.0%
2. 2–0 9.9%
3. 2–1 9.8%
4. 1–0 7.7%
5. 3–0 7.3%
6. 3–1 7.3%
7. 0–0 5.1%
8. 2–2 4.9%