Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava result

Goals and cards

1. 1' Goal F. Kubala (assist M. Kohút) Baník Ostrava
2. 33' Yellow card A. Traoré Baník Ostrava
3. 55' Yellow card M. Chaluš Baník Ostrava
4. 58' Yellow card M. Kohút Baník Ostrava
5. 66' Yellow card F. Kubala Baník Ostrava
6. 83' Yellow card J. Zelený Sparta Praha
7. 84' Goal Rhodri Smith (assist L. Dvoracek) Baník Ostrava
8. 90+3' Yellow card J. Elbel Baník Ostrava

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Sparta Praha to score about 1.6 more and playing at home is worth roughly 20% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 8575 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.20× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: Sparta Praha won 2, 2 drawn, Baník Ostrava won 2. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Baník Ostrava has had 7 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 2-1 (9%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Sparta Praha attack scores 208% more than average, against Baník Ostrava defence, which lets in 64% fewer than average: 2.48 goals (an average side here: 2.22)
• Baník Ostrava attack scores 108% more than average, against Sparta Praha defence, which lets in 68% fewer than average: 1.21 goals (an average side here: 1.85)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Sparta Praha 2.65, Baník Ostrava 1.04.

Ratings from 115 matches for Sparta Praha and 115 for Baník Ostrava, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Sparta Praha win 7.4 corners a game — 100th percentile in this competition.
• Sparta Praha score 2.4 a game — 85th percentile in this competition.
• Sparta Praha have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 9.7

Sparta Praha 5.8 · Baník Ostrava 3.9

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (265 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 2–1 9.1%
2. 2–0 8.7%
3. 3–1 8.1%
4. 1–1 7.8%
5. 3–0 7.7%
6. 1–0 5.7%
7. 4–1 5.3%
8. 4–0 5.1%