Larisa vs OFI result
1–0 Full time
Larisa beat OFI 1–0 in the Cup (Greek Cup - 4) on 28 October 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Larisa 35%, the draw 28% and OFI 37%.
Goals and cards
- 50' Yellow card T. Nuss OFI
- 52' Goal N. Nitsos (assist A. Parras) Larisa
- 58' Yellow card P. Kenourgiakis OFI
- 60' Yellow card C. Lelekas Larisa
- 90+1' Yellow card G. Konstantakopoulos Larisa
- 90+2' Yellow card N. Melissas Larisa
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Called it: double chance Larisa or OFI, 72% before kick-off
- 35%Larisa fair odds 2.88
- 28%Draw fair odds 3.56
- 37%OFI fair odds 2.69
Most likely score 1-1 (13.3%)
Why the Ghost says this
The two sides are expected to score about the same.
High confidence — Fitted on 5008 matches, and close to what the market implies.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Larisa
Attack 1.69 · Defence 0.54
Last five: DDLDW, scored 4, conceded 4
OFI
Attack 2.22 · Defence 0.50
Last five: WLLLL, scored 6, conceded 12
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.36× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last 2 meetings: Larisa won 0, 0 drawn, OFI won 2. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: High.
Flags and warnings
- Larisa has a new coach, Gianluca Festa, for its last 8 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Larisa attack scores 69% more than average, against OFI defence, which lets in 50% fewer than average: 1.40 goals (an average side here: 1.64)
- OFI attack scores 122% more than average, against Larisa defence, which lets in 46% fewer than average: 1.44 goals (an average side here: 1.21)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Larisa 1.39, OFI 1.45.
Ratings from 107 matches for Larisa and 120 for OFI, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Larisa score 0.9 a game — 18th percentile in this competition.
- OFI win 4 corners a game — 69th percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 1.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.26 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.85 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 3.15 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 16% | 6.28 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 7% | 13.60 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21% | 4.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 84% | 1.19 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| Both teams to score: No | 41% | 2.44 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 8.3
Larisa 5.0 · OFI 3.3
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 7.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 8.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 9.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 10.5 | 22% | 78% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (235 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 13.3%
- 1–2 8.5%
- 2–1 8.2%
- 0–0 7.4%
- 0–1 6.9%
- 1–0 6.6%
- 0–2 6.1%
- 2–2 5.9%
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
Larisa at home
5–3–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.9 per game
- Conceded
- 0.9 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 4.3 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.7 per game
0% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
OFI away
3–1–6 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.0 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 4.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 2.9 per game
50% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Larisa vs OFI head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| OFI v Larisa | 3–0 | |
| Larisa v OFI | 1–2 |
Only 2 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 83% | 1.20 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 82% | 1.22 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 77% | 1.31 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 75% | 1.33 |
| Home/Away double chance | 72% | 1.39 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 65% | 1.53 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 65% | 1.53 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 63% | 1.59 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 63% | 1.59 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 43% | 2.35 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 41% | 2.46 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 37% | 2.69 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 35% | 2.88 |
| Away clean sheet | 25% | 4.03 |
| Home clean sheet | 23% | 4.26 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 18% | 5.45 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 18% | 5.60 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 17% | 6.01 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 17% | 6.06 |