Spartak Moscow vs Rubin match stats & report

Spartak Moscow vs Rubin match statistics

• 48% Ball possession 52%
• 10 Total shots 19
• 4 Shots on target 6
• 6 Shots off target 13
• 0 Blocked shots 0
• 0 Corners 0
• 0 Offsides 0
• 1 Yellow cards 3
• 0 Red cards 0

Goals and cards

1. 7' Goal I. Dmitriev (assist N. Umyarov) Spartak Moscow
2. 44' Yellow card U. Babaev Rubin
3. 84' Yellow card A. Djiku Spartak Moscow
4. 85' Yellow card I. Vujačić Rubin
5. 90+3' Yellow card D. Kabutov Rubin

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Spartak Moscow to score about 1.7 more and playing at home is worth roughly 25% in this competition.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 5675 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.25× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: Spartak Moscow won 3, 2 drawn, Rubin won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 2-0 (13%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Spartak Moscow has a new coach, Carcedo, for its last 5 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Spartak Moscow attack scores 174% more than average, against Rubin defence, which lets in 55% fewer than average: 2.29 goals (an average side here: 1.86)
• Rubin attack scores 57% more than average, against Spartak Moscow defence, which lets in 62% fewer than average: 0.89 goals (an average side here: 1.49)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Spartak Moscow 2.46, Rubin 0.72.

Ratings from 121 matches for Spartak Moscow and 105 for Rubin, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Spartak Moscow score 2.4 a game — 91st percentile in this competition.
• Rubin have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
• Spartak Moscow win 6.3 corners a game — 83rd percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 9.2

Spartak Moscow 6.2 · Rubin 3.0

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (266 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 2–0 12.6%
2. 3–0 10.3%
3. 1–0 9.3%
4. 2–1 9.1%
5. 1–1 8.3%
6. 3–1 7.4%
7. 4–0 6.3%
8. 0–0 5.1%