Sweden vs Poland match stats & report
3–1 Full time
Sweden beat Poland 3–1 in the UEFA Nations League (League B - 2) on 28 September 2026. Sweden had 53% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Sweden 52%, the draw 25% and Poland 23%.
Sweden vs Poland match statistics
- 53% Ball possession 47%
- 12 Total shots 18
- 6 Shots on target 7
- 5 Shots off target 6
- 1 Blocked shots 5
- 9 Shots inside the box 9
- 4 Corners 4
- 8 Fouls 9
- 0 Offsides 1
- 1 Yellow cards 3
- 0 Red cards 0
- 519 Passes 460
- 6 Goalkeeper saves 3
Goals and cards
- 8' Goal B. Nygren (assist V. Lindelöf) Sweden
- 19' Yellow card D. Svensson Sweden
- 35' Yellow card T. Puchacz Poland
- 43' Goal S. Szymański (assist Nicola Zalewski) Poland
- 58' Yellow card P. Zieliński Poland
- 63' Goal Yasin Ayari (assist S. Nanasi) Sweden
- 72' Goal V. Gyökeres (assist P. Wålemark) Sweden
- 90+2' Yellow card R. Lewandowski Poland
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 52%Sweden fair odds 1.93
- 25%Draw fair odds 4.02
- 23%Poland fair odds 4.31
Most likely score 1-1 (11.4%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.06 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 1.64 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 2.58 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 21% | 4.74 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 6% | 17.90 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16% | 6.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.57 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 79% | 1.27 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| Both teams to score: No | 38% | 2.62 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 8.8
Sweden 4.8 · Poland 4.0
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 7.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 8.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 9.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 10.5 | 28% | 72% |
Expected cards: 3.8
Sweden 1.7 · Poland 2.1
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 4.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 5.5 | 19% | 81% |
Expected shots on target: 8.8
Sweden 4.8 · Poland 3.9
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 7.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 8.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 9.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 10.5 | 28% | 72% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (4426 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 11.4%
- 2–1 9.7%
- 2–0 7.8%
- 1–0 6.9%
- 1–2 6.3%
- 3–1 6.2%
- 2–2 6.0%
- 0–0 5.6%
Team news & lineups
Sweden
Bench A. Bernhardsson , N. Törnqvist , P. Abraham , M. Ellborg , J. Karlström , Gustaf Lagerbielke , H. Larsson , J. Mellberg , S. Nanasi , H. Skoglund , E. Stroud , W. Swedberg
Poland
Bench T. Kędziora , M. Kochalski , R. Lewandowski , W. Mońka , K. Potulski , M. Reguła , M. Skóraś , B. Slisz , K. Świderski , K. UrbaÅ„ski , S. Abramowicz , P. Frankowski
Form guide
Sweden at home
4–2–2 in 8 matches
- Scored
- 2.0 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 8
- Corners
- 4.5 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.1 per game
25% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 8 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Poland away
2–0–3 in 5 matches
- Scored
- 1.6 per game
- Conceded
- 1.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 5
- Corners
- 7.6 per game
- Shots on target
- 5.6 per game
12% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 5 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Sweden vs Poland head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Sweden v Poland | 3–2 | |
| Poland v Sweden | 2–0 | |
| Sweden v Poland | 3–2 |
Only 3 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home -1.5 handicap | 31% | 3.26 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 30% | 3.33 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 77% | 1.30 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 52% | 1.93 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 57% | 1.75 |
| Home clean sheet | 29% | 3.45 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 77% | 1.30 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 85% | 1.17 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 90% | 1.11 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 71% | 1.41 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 35% | 2.85 |
| Home/Away double chance | 75% | 1.33 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 48% | 2.08 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 69% | 1.44 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 48% | 2.08 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 13% | 7.77 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 23% | 4.31 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 10% | 10.04 |
| Away clean sheet | 15% | 6.79 |