Lillestrom vs Sogndal result

Goals and cards

1. 11' Yellow card P. Asp Sogndal
2. 66' Goal H. Melland Lillestrom
3. 72' Yellow card M. Oren Sogndal
4. 75' Goal K. Arierhi Sogndal
5. 76' Goal F. Gulbrandsen Lillestrom

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Lillestrom to score about 2.4 more and playing at home is worth roughly 28% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 6209 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.28× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 3-0 (9%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Lillestrom has a new coach, H. Ødegaard, for its last 5 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Sogndal has a new coach, Luis Pimenta, for its last 4 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Lillestrom attack scores 129% more than average, against Sogndal defence, which lets in 50% fewer than average: 3.08 goals (an average side here: 2.68)
• Sogndal attack scores 54% more than average, against Lillestrom defence, which lets in 66% fewer than average: 1.09 goals (an average side here: 2.09)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Lillestrom 3.30, Sogndal 0.86.

Ratings from 108 matches for Lillestrom and 97 for Sogndal, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Lillestrom have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
• Sogndal have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
• Both teams have scored in 8 of Sogndal’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 3–0 9.3%
2. 2–0 8.5%
3. 3–1 8.0%
4. 4–0 7.7%
5. 2–1 7.3%
6. 4–1 6.6%
7. 5–0 5.1%
8. 1–1 5.0%