Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga result
3–2 Full time
Sarpsborg 08 FF stats & fixtures · Valerenga stats & fixtures
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Valerenga 3–2 in the NM Cupen (Round of 32) on 28 October 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Sarpsborg 08 FF 49%, the draw 22% and Valerenga 29%.
Goals and cards
- 11' Goal Camil Mmaee (assist A. Hiim) Sarpsborg 08 FF
- 41' Yellow card Camil Mmaee Sarpsborg 08 FF
- 49' Goal Camil Mmaee (assist N. Williams) Sarpsborg 08 FF
- 59' Goal D. Gjengaar (assist M. Westergaard) Valerenga
- 65' Goal D. Gjengaar (assist H. Nielsen) Valerenga
- 69' Goal D. Karlsbakk Sarpsborg 08 FF
- 72' Yellow card M. Westergaard Valerenga
- 88' Yellow card D. Karlsbakk Sarpsborg 08 FF
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Called it: over 0.5 goals, 97% before kick-off
- 49%Sarpsborg 08 FF fair odds 2.04
- 22%Draw fair odds 4.49
- 29%Valerenga fair odds 3.47
Most likely score 1-1 (8.5%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Sarpsborg 08 FF to score about 0.5 more and playing at home is worth roughly 28% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.
High confidence — Fitted on 6209 matches, and close to what the market implies.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Attack 2.02 · Defence 0.37
Last five: WLWWL, scored 9, conceded 9
Valerenga
Attack 2.29 · Defence 0.40
Last five: WWLDW, scored 10, conceded 5
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.28× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last 6 meetings: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0, 2 drawn, Valerenga won 4. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (8%). Confidence: High.
Flags and warnings
Nothing unusual behind these numbers.
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Sarpsborg 08 FF attack scores 102% more than average, against Valerenga defence, which lets in 60% fewer than average: 2.16 goals (an average side here: 2.68)
- Valerenga attack scores 129% more than average, against Sarpsborg 08 FF defence, which lets in 63% fewer than average: 1.76 goals (an average side here: 2.09)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.22, Valerenga 1.70.
Ratings from 103 matches for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 98 for Valerenga, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Valerenga win 6.7 corners a game — 100th percentile in this competition.
- Valerenga have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF win 7.4 corners a game — 81st percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 97% | 1.03 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% | 1.81 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 36% | 2.81 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 3% | 33.88 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 9% | 11.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25% | 4.00 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 45% | 2.23 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 64% | 1.55 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score: No | 26% | 3.82 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 11.5
Sarpsborg 08 FF 6.3 · Valerenga 5.2
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 10.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 11.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 12.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 13.5 | 28% | 72% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (224 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 8.5%
- 2–1 8.3%
- 2–2 7.1%
- 1–2 6.4%
- 3–1 6.2%
- 3–2 5.2%
- 2–0 4.9%
- 2–3 4.0%
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at home
5–1–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.5 per game
- Conceded
- 1.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 7.4 per game
- Shots on target
- 5.3 per game
20% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Valerenga away
4–2–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.5 per game
- Conceded
- 2.3 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- Corners
- 6.7 per game
- Shots on target
- 6.3 per game
28% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Sarpsborg 08 FF v Valerenga | 2–2 | |
| Valerenga v Sarpsborg 08 FF | 3–2 | |
| Valerenga v Sarpsborg 08 FF | 4–0 | |
| Sarpsborg 08 FF v Valerenga | 1–1 | |
| Valerenga v Sarpsborg 08 FF | 1–0 | |
| Valerenga v Sarpsborg 08 FF | 5–3 |
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 89% | 1.12 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 85% | 1.17 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 82% | 1.22 |
| Home/Away double chance | 78% | 1.29 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 71% | 1.40 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 71% | 1.40 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 70% | 1.43 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 65% | 1.54 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 51% | 1.96 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 51% | 1.96 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 51% | 1.97 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 49% | 2.04 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 38% | 2.61 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 30% | 3.34 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 29% | 3.47 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 24% | 4.12 |
| Home clean sheet | 18% | 5.48 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 15% | 6.88 |
| Away clean sheet | 11% | 9.23 |