Molde vs Stromsgodset result

Goals and cards

1. 10' Goal Trent Toure Kone Doherty Molde
2. 20' Goal V. Dedes Stromsgodset
3. 30' Yellow card B. Risa Molde
4. 37' Yellow card G. Wikheim Stromsgodset
5. 43' Goal J. Abdullai (assist Trent Toure Kone Doherty) Molde
6. 55' Yellow card A. Heredia-Randen Stromsgodset
7. 89' Goal N. Odegard (assist C. Zady) Molde
8. 90+5' Goal N. Odegard Molde

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Molde to score about 1.8 more and playing at home is worth roughly 28% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 6209 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.28× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: Molde won 2, 2 drawn, Stromsgodset won 2. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 3-1 (8%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Molde attack scores 179% more than average, against Stromsgodset defence, which lets in 60% fewer than average: 3.00 goals (an average side here: 2.68)
• Stromsgodset attack scores 117% more than average, against Molde defence, which lets in 65% fewer than average: 1.60 goals (an average side here: 2.09)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Molde 3.19, Stromsgodset 1.41.

Ratings from 103 matches for Molde and 101 for Stromsgodset, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Stromsgodset score 2.7 a game — 91st percentile in this competition.
• Molde score 2.9 a game — 85th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 8 of Molde’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 10.9

Molde 6.2 · Stromsgodset 4.7

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (224 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 3–1 7.7%
2. 2–1 7.2%
3. 4–1 6.1%
4. 3–0 5.4%
5. 3–2 5.4%
6. 2–0 5.1%
7. 1–1 5.1%
8. 2–2 5.1%