Türkiye vs Italy match stats & report
1–4 Full time
Türkiye lost to Italy 1–4 in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 2) on 28 September 2026. Türkiye had 54% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Türkiye 28%, the draw 26% and Italy 46%.
Türkiye vs Italy match statistics
- 54% Ball possession 46%
- 15 Total shots 14
- 3 Shots on target 8
- 7 Shots off target 4
- 5 Blocked shots 2
- 6 Shots inside the box 12
- 6 Corners 2
- 12 Fouls 21
- 1 Offsides 2
- 3 Yellow cards 0
- 0 Red cards 0
- 571 Passes 499
- 4 Goalkeeper saves 2
Goals and cards
- 9' Goal A. Bastoni Italy
- 22' Goal D. Frattesi Italy
- 27' Goal M. Kayode (assist F. Esposito) Italy
- 38' Yellow card C. Uzun Türkiye
- 47' Goal B. Yılmaz (assist Oğuz Aydın) Türkiye
- 50' Goal F. Esposito Italy
- 54' Yellow card B. Yılmaz Türkiye
- 72' Yellow card O. Kabak Türkiye
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 28%Türkiye fair odds 3.63
- 26%Draw fair odds 3.81
- 46%Italy fair odds 2.16
Most likely score 1-1 (12.2%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.07 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.70 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 2.74 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 19% | 5.17 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 6% | 16.31 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18% | 5.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.43 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 81% | 1.24 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| Both teams to score: No | 38% | 2.61 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 8.8
Türkiye 4.1 · Italy 4.7
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 7.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 8.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 9.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 10.5 | 28% | 72% |
Expected cards: 3.8
Türkiye 1.9 · Italy 1.9
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 4.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 5.5 | 18% | 82% |
Expected shots on target: 8.5
Türkiye 4.0 · Italy 4.4
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 7.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 8.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 9.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 10.5 | 24% | 76% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (4426 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 12.2%
- 1–2 9.4%
- 0–2 7.2%
- 2–1 7.1%
- 0–1 6.8%
- 2–2 6.2%
- 0–0 6.1%
- 1–3 5.5%
Team news & lineups
Türkiye
Bench İsmail Yüksek , Demir Ege Tıknaz , Muhammed Şengezer , Okan Kocuk , İrfan Can Kahveci , Ferdi Kadıoğlu , Deniz Gül , Mustafa Eskihellaç , Abdülkerim Bardakcı , K. Akturkoglu , Yunus Akgün , Samet Akaydın
Italy
Bench N. Cambiaghi , G. Vicario , Marco Carnesecchi , G. Di Lorenzo , I. Doumbia , D. Ghilardi , M. Kean , R. Mandragora , A. Romano , Gianluca Scamacca , A. Vergara , R. Calafiori
Form guide
Türkiye at home
5–0–3 in 8 matches
- Scored
- 1.9 per game
- Conceded
- 1.1 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 8
- Corners
- 7.9 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.5 per game
13% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 8 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Italy away
5–1–0 in 6 matches
- Scored
- 2.0 per game
- Conceded
- 0.5 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 6
- Corners
- 6.2 per game
- Shots on target
- 5.7 per game
17% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 6 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Türkiye vs Italy head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Italy v Türkiye | 0–0 | |
| Türkiye v Italy | 2–3 | |
| Türkiye v Italy | 0–3 |
Only 3 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away -1.5 handicap | 26% | 3.90 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 46% | 2.16 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 25% | 3.94 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 52% | 1.93 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 72% | 1.38 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 72% | 1.38 |
| Away clean sheet | 27% | 3.71 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 88% | 1.14 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 82% | 1.21 |
| Home/Away double chance | 74% | 1.36 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 73% | 1.37 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 74% | 1.34 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 54% | 1.86 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 54% | 1.86 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 38% | 2.65 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 28% | 3.63 |
| Home clean sheet | 18% | 5.70 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 15% | 6.88 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 12% | 8.06 |