Wacker Innsbruck vs WSG Wattens result

Goals and cards

1. 5' Goal H. Balić (assist M. Olakigbe) WSG Wattens
2. 16' Goal Luis Gstrein (assist Adrian Lechl) Wacker Innsbruck
3. 90' Yellow card M. Boras WSG Wattens
4. 105+1' Yellow card M. Taferner WSG Wattens
5. 110' Goal T. Sabitzer WSG Wattens
6. 115' Yellow card T. Sabitzer WSG Wattens
7. 116' Goal Gabriele Biancheri (assist Christopher Weinzierl) Wacker Innsbruck

Penalty shoot-out: 3–4

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects WSG Wattens to score about 0.4 more.

High confidence — Fitted on 8892 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.24× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Wacker Innsbruck attack scores 41% more than average, against WSG Wattens defence, which lets in 58% fewer than average: 1.27 goals (an average side here: 2.13)
• WSG Wattens attack scores 107% more than average, against Wacker Innsbruck defence, which lets in 57% fewer than average: 1.55 goals (an average side here: 1.72)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Wacker Innsbruck 1.23, WSG Wattens 1.59.

Ratings from 71 matches for Wacker Innsbruck and 102 for WSG Wattens, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• WSG Wattens score 2.6 a game — 94th percentile in this competition.
• WSG Wattens have kept 6 clean sheets in 10.
• Both teams have scored in 3 of WSG Wattens’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 13.2%
2. 1–2 9.3%
3. 0–1 7.9%
4. 0–2 7.5%
5. 0–0 7.5%
6. 2–1 7.2%
7. 1–0 5.8%
8. 2–2 5.7%