SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart match stats & report

SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart match statistics

• 36% Ball possession 64%
• 0.92 Expected goals (xG) 3.27
• 17 Total shots 19
• 5 Shots on target 5
• 7 Shots off target 12
• 5 Blocked shots 2
• 9 Shots inside the box 13
• 4 Corners 6
• 9 Fouls 13
• 1 Yellow cards 2
• 1 Red cards 0
• 341 Passes 579
• 4 Goalkeeper saves 5

Goals and cards

1. 33' Yellow card J. Leweling VfB Stuttgart
2. 37' Red card L. Curda SC Paderborn 07
3. 41' Yellow card J. Chabot VfB Stuttgart
4. 85' Yellow card R. Obermair SC Paderborn 07
5. 90' Goal D. Undav (assist C. Fuhrich) VfB Stuttgart

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects VfB Stuttgart to score about 1.0 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 15280 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.16× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last meeting: SC Paderborn 07 won 0, 0 drawn, VfB Stuttgart won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-2 (9%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• VfB Stuttgart has a new coach, S. Hoeneb, for its last 6 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• SC Paderborn 07 attack scores 80% more than average, against VfB Stuttgart defence, which lets in 62% fewer than average: 1.52 goals (an average side here: 2.21)
• VfB Stuttgart attack scores 171% more than average, against SC Paderborn 07 defence, which lets in 56% fewer than average: 2.27 goals (an average side here: 1.90)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on SC Paderborn 07 1.41, VfB Stuttgart 2.38.

Ratings from 107 matches for SC Paderborn 07 and 115 for VfB Stuttgart, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• SC Paderborn 07 win 7.8 corners a game — 89th percentile in this competition.
• SC Paderborn 07 have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
• VfB Stuttgart score 2.4 a game — 83rd percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 10.6

SC Paderborn 07 4.7 · VfB Stuttgart 5.9

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (361 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–2 9.0%
2. 1–1 8.6%
3. 1–3 7.2%
4. 0–2 6.4%
5. 2–2 6.4%
6. 2–1 5.3%
7. 0–3 5.1%
8. 2–3 5.1%