Spezia vs Livorno result
2–1 Full time
Spezia beat Livorno 2–1 in the Coppa Italia Serie C (Round of 16) on 28 October 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Spezia 73%, the draw 18% and Livorno 9%.
Goals and cards
- 33' Goal T. Mancini Livorno
- 37' Yellow card L. Bonassi Livorno
- 38' Yellow card J. Spedalieri Spezia
- 38' Yellow card M. Bachini Livorno
- 43' Yellow card C. Badoro Livorno
- 45+2' Yellow card T. Mancini Livorno
- 53' Penalty scored K. Jimenez Spezia
- 73' Yellow card A. Bacciardi Livorno
- 90+2' Goal G. Di Serio Spezia
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Called it: under 4.5 goals, 78% before kick-off
- 73%Spezia fair odds 1.38
- 18%Draw fair odds 5.50
- 9%Livorno fair odds 10.88
Most likely score 2-0 (11.8%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Spezia to score about 1.6 more and playing at home is worth roughly 21% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.
Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Spezia
Attack 1.52 · Defence 0.63
Last five: DWWWW, scored 7, conceded 2
Livorno
Attack 1.21 · Defence 0.99
Last five: LDDLW, scored 9, conceded 10
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.21× what an average away side does. In the numbers
Most likely score 2-0 (12%). Confidence: Low.
Flags and warnings
- Spezia has a new coach, Luca D'Angelo, for its last 8 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Spezia attack scores 52% more than average, against Livorno defence, which lets in about the average: 2.27 goals (an average side here: 1.52)
- Livorno attack scores 21% more than average, against Spezia defence, which lets in 37% fewer than average: 0.95 goals (an average side here: 1.25)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Spezia 2.43, Livorno 0.79.
Ratings from 123 matches for Spezia and 115 for Livorno, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Spezia score 2.2 a game — 98th percentile in this competition.
- Livorno score 0.7 a game — 10th percentile in this competition.
- Livorno have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.05 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 1.19 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 1.60 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 2.48 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 22% | 4.47 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 5% | 20.10 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16% | 6.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37% | 2.67 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 78% | 1.29 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| Both teams to score: No | 49% | 2.03 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 2–0 11.8%
- 3–0 9.6%
- 2–1 9.3%
- 1–0 8.7%
- 1–1 8.6%
- 3–1 7.6%
- 4–0 5.8%
- 0–0 5.0%
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
Spezia at home
8–2–0 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.2 per game
- Conceded
- 0.7 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 6.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.0 per game
Livorno away
1–3–6 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.7 per game
- Conceded
- 1.5 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 97% | 1.03 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 91% | 1.10 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 91% | 1.10 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 91% | 1.10 |
| Home/Away double chance | 82% | 1.22 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 73% | 1.38 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 70% | 1.43 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 55% | 1.83 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 51% | 1.96 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 49% | 2.05 |
| Home clean sheet | 45% | 2.20 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 44% | 2.28 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 27% | 3.65 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 27% | 3.65 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 19% | 5.33 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 9% | 10.88 |
| Away clean sheet | 9% | 11.41 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 5% | 21.75 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 3% | 34.70 |