Dinamo Bucuresti vs Chindia Targoviste result

Goals and cards

1. 18' Yellow card Dinamo Bucuresti
2. 24' Goal Diogo Pinto Dinamo Bucuresti
3. 33' Goal Diogo Pinto Dinamo Bucuresti
4. 38' Yellow card Dinamo Bucuresti
5. 66' Goal Diogo Pinto Dinamo Bucuresti
6. 76' Yellow card Chindia Targoviste
7. 84' Goal Dean Zandbergen Dinamo Bucuresti
8. 84' Yellow card Chindia Targoviste
9. 86' Goal R. Mihai Chindia Targoviste
10. 90' Goal B. Petre Chindia Targoviste
11. 90+3' Goal Dean Zandbergen Dinamo Bucuresti

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Dinamo Bucuresti to score about 2.3 more and playing at home is worth roughly 27% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.27× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 2-0 (12%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Chindia Targoviste has a new coach, Nicolae Croitoru, for its last 2 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Dinamo Bucuresti attack scores 123% more than average, against Chindia Targoviste defence, which lets in 44% fewer than average: 2.75 goals (an average side here: 2.22)
• Chindia Targoviste attack scores 51% more than average, against Dinamo Bucuresti defence, which lets in 67% fewer than average: 0.86 goals (an average side here: 1.75)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Dinamo Bucuresti 2.95, Chindia Targoviste 0.66.

Ratings from 106 matches for Dinamo Bucuresti and 92 for Chindia Targoviste, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Dinamo Bucuresti score 2.8 a game — 92nd percentile in this competition.
• Chindia Targoviste score 2.1 a game — 87th percentile in this competition.
• Dinamo Bucuresti win 5.6 corners a game — 68th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 2–0 11.8%
2. 3–0 11.6%
3. 4–0 8.6%
4. 2–1 7.7%
5. 3–1 7.6%
6. 1–0 7.3%
7. 1–1 5.9%
8. 4–1 5.6%