Znicz Pruszków vs Ruch Chorzów result

Goals and cards

1. 64' Goal M. Chrapek (assist J. Kristan) Ruch Chorzów
2. 76' Yellow card A. Lukic Ruch Chorzów

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 6587 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.20× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Znicz Pruszków has a new coach, Lukasz Smolarow, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Ruch Chorzów has a new coach, Waldemar Fornalik, for its last 3 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Znicz Pruszków attack scores 26% more than average, against Ruch Chorzów defence, which lets in 37% fewer than average: 1.46 goals (an average side here: 1.84)
• Ruch Chorzów attack scores 34% more than average, against Znicz Pruszków defence, which lets in 25% fewer than average: 1.54 goals (an average side here: 1.53)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Znicz Pruszków 1.44, Ruch Chorzów 1.55.

Ratings from 108 matches for Znicz Pruszków and 109 for Ruch Chorzów, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Ruch Chorzów score 0.8 a game — 10th percentile in this competition.
• Znicz Pruszków have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
• Both teams have scored in 2 of Ruch Chorzów’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 12.7%
2. 1–2 8.7%
3. 2–1 8.1%
4. 0–0 6.5%
5. 0–1 6.3%
6. 2–2 6.3%
7. 0–2 6.0%
8. 1–0 5.8%