Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland result

Goals and cards

1. 12' Goal A. Lind (assist M. Walker) FC Nordsjaelland
2. 45+1' Yellow card N. Rojkjaer FC Nordsjaelland
3. 75' Yellow card M. Heyde FC Nordsjaelland

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects FC Nordsjaelland to score about 1.2 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 3839 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.18× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-2 (9%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Esbjerg attack scores 110% more than average, against FC Nordsjaelland defence, which lets in 71% fewer than average: 1.49 goals (an average side here: 2.43)
• FC Nordsjaelland attack scores 194% more than average, against Esbjerg defence, which lets in 60% fewer than average: 2.46 goals (an average side here: 2.07)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Esbjerg 1.36, FC Nordsjaelland 2.59.

Ratings from 107 matches for Esbjerg and 108 for FC Nordsjaelland, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Esbjerg have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
• FC Nordsjaelland have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.
• Esbjerg score 1 a game — 35th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–2 8.8%
2. 1–1 7.7%
3. 1–3 7.6%
4. 0–2 6.5%
5. 2–2 6.0%
6. 0–3 5.6%
7. 2–3 5.2%
8. 1–4 4.9%