NK Varazdin vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb result

Goals and cards

1. 44' Yellow card D. Puclin NK Varazdin
2. 79' Yellow card N. Đurković NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
3. 85' Yellow card T. Triantafyllou NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4. 94' Goal Iuri Tavares NK Varazdin
5. 117' Yellow card P. Bočkaj NK Varazdin
6. 120' Goal L. Belcar NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Penalty shoot-out: 5–4

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects NK Varazdin to score about 0.9 more and playing at home is worth roughly 43% in this competition.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 4599 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.43× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: NK Varazdin won 2, 2 drawn, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb won 2. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• NK Varazdin attack scores 62% more than average, against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence, which lets in 50% fewer than average: 1.72 goals (an average side here: 2.10)
• NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack scores 64% more than average, against NK Varazdin defence, which lets in 58% fewer than average: 1.02 goals (an average side here: 1.47)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on NK Varazdin 1.82, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.92.

Ratings from 113 matches for NK Varazdin and 117 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• NK Lokomotiva Zagreb score 0.9 a game — 20th percentile in this competition.
• NK Varazdin have kept 6 clean sheets in 10.
• NK Varazdin score 1.5 a game — 31st percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 9.3

NK Varazdin 4.2 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 5.1

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (178 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 12.2%
2. 2–0 10.7%
3. 1–0 10.3%
4. 2–1 9.8%
5. 0–0 7.9%
6. 3–0 6.5%
7. 3–1 6.0%
8. 1–2 5.0%