Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis result
2–1 Full time
Panathinaikos stats & fixtures · Aris Thessalonikis stats & fixtures
Panathinaikos beat Aris Thessalonikis 2–1 in the Cup (Greek Cup - 4) on 28 October 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Panathinaikos 64%, the draw 23% and Aris Thessalonikis 13%.
Goals and cards
- 10' Goal S. Kontouris (assist I. Louza) Panathinaikos
- 40' Yellow card Rafa Mir Aris Thessalonikis
- 65' Goal T. Kadewere Aris Thessalonikis
- 89' Goal E. Rastoder (assist G. Kiriakopoulos) Panathinaikos
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Called it: Panathinaikos +1.5 handicap: not lose by 2+, 96% before kick-off
- 64%Panathinaikos fair odds 1.56
- 23%Draw fair odds 4.29
- 13%Aris Thessalonikis fair odds 7.91
Most likely score 2-0 (12.5%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Panathinaikos to score about 1.2 more and playing at home is worth roughly 36% in this competition.
Medium confidence — Fitted on 5007 matches.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Panathinaikos
Attack 2.64 · Defence 0.37
Last five: WWWWL, scored 13, conceded 4
Aris Thessalonikis
Attack 2.04 · Defence 0.42
Last five: WWWDW, scored 9, conceded 4
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.36× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last 6 meetings: Panathinaikos won 3, 2 drawn, Aris Thessalonikis won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 2-0 (12%). Confidence: Medium.
Flags and warnings
Nothing unusual behind these numbers.
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Panathinaikos attack scores 164% more than average, against Aris Thessalonikis defence, which lets in 58% fewer than average: 1.84 goals (an average side here: 1.65)
- Aris Thessalonikis attack scores 104% more than average, against Panathinaikos defence, which lets in 63% fewer than average: 0.90 goals (an average side here: 1.21)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Panathinaikos 1.96, Aris Thessalonikis 0.77.
Ratings from 116 matches for Panathinaikos and 118 for Aris Thessalonikis, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Panathinaikos score 2.4 a game — 96th percentile in this competition.
- Panathinaikos win 7.9 corners a game — 94th percentile in this competition.
- Aris Thessalonikis win 5.8 corners a game — 94th percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.94 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 3.40 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 14% | 7.00 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 8% | 12.90 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23% | 4.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.06 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.42 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 86% | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 48% | 2.10 |
| Both teams to score: No | 52% | 1.91 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 8.4
Panathinaikos 5.3 · Aris Thessalonikis 3.1
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 7.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 8.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 9.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 10.5 | 24% | 76% |
Expected cards: 5.2
Panathinaikos 2.2 · Aris Thessalonikis 3.0
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 4.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 5.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 6.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 7.5 | 17% | 83% |
Expected shots on target: 8.3
Panathinaikos 5.5 · Aris Thessalonikis 2.8
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 7.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 8.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 9.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 10.5 | 23% | 77% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (235 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 2–0 12.5%
- 1–0 11.4%
- 1–1 11.1%
- 2–1 9.7%
- 3–0 8.2%
- 0–0 7.7%
- 3–1 6.3%
- 4–0 4.0%
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
Panathinaikos at home
8–2–0 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.4 per game
- Conceded
- 0.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 7.9 per game
- Shots on target
- 7.9 per game
21% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Aris Thessalonikis away
4–1–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.4 per game
- Conceded
- 2.3 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- Corners
- 5.8 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.6 per game
36% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos v Aris Thessalonikis | 3–1 | |
| Panathinaikos v Aris Thessalonikis | 3–0 | |
| Aris Thessalonikis v Panathinaikos | 1–1 | |
| Aris Thessalonikis v Panathinaikos | 2–0 | |
| Panathinaikos v Aris Thessalonikis | 1–1 | |
| Panathinaikos v Aris Thessalonikis | 1–0 |
The full Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis head-to-head record
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 96% | 1.04 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 87% | 1.14 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 87% | 1.14 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 86% | 1.16 |
| Home/Away double chance | 77% | 1.30 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 64% | 1.56 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 60% | 1.67 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 58% | 1.71 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 54% | 1.86 |
| Home clean sheet | 46% | 2.17 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 40% | 2.49 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 36% | 2.78 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 36% | 2.78 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 31% | 3.19 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 18% | 5.50 |
| Away clean sheet | 14% | 7.13 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 13% | 7.91 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 4% | 22.84 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 4% | 24.98 |