Sakaryaspor vs Bursa Yıldırımspor result

Goals and cards

1. 36' Goal E. Yuceer Bursa Yıldırımspor
2. 57' Goal Sakaryaspor
3. 68' Goal A. Polat Bursa Yıldırımspor
4. 78' Goal E. Cagdas (assist M. Golbasi) Bursa Yıldırımspor
5. 81' Goal G. Akkan (assist H. Bilal) Sakaryaspor

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Sakaryaspor to score about 0.7 more and playing at home is worth roughly 23% in this competition.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.23× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Sakaryaspor has a new coach, Mustafa Dalci, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Bursa Yıldırımspor has a new coach, P. Çetin, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Sakaryaspor attack scores 18% more than average, against Bursa Yıldırımspor defence, which lets in 20% fewer than average: 1.68 goals (an average side here: 1.79)
• Bursa Yıldırımspor attack scores 9% less than average, against Sakaryaspor defence, which lets in 16% fewer than average: 1.11 goals (an average side here: 1.46)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Sakaryaspor 1.77, Bursa Yıldırımspor 1.02.

Ratings from 114 matches for Sakaryaspor and 97 for Bursa Yıldırımspor, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 12.5%
2. 2–1 9.8%
3. 2–0 9.6%
4. 1–0 9.4%
5. 0–0 7.6%
6. 3–1 5.8%
7. 1–2 5.7%
8. 3–0 5.7%