Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Kalamata result

Goals and cards

1. 51' Goal J. Bolívar (assist M. Soumahoro) Kalamata
2. 74' Yellow card P. Panagiotou Kalamata
3. 76' Yellow card F. Miyenga Nestos Chrisoupolis
4. 90+1' Penalty scored Josete Miranda Kalamata

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Kalamata to score about 0.9 more. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 5044 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.00× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 0-1 (17%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Nestos Chrisoupolis attack scores 4% more than average, against Kalamata defence, which lets in 45% fewer than average: 0.69 goals (an average side here: 1.21)
• Kalamata attack scores 85% more than average, against Nestos Chrisoupolis defence, which lets in 37% fewer than average: 1.40 goals (an average side here: 1.21)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Nestos Chrisoupolis 0.60, Kalamata 1.50.

Ratings from 98 matches for Nestos Chrisoupolis and 89 for Kalamata, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Nestos Chrisoupolis score 0.9 a game — 18th percentile in this competition.
• Kalamata win 2 corners a game — 19th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 3 of Nestos Chrisoupolis’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–1 17.0%
2. 0–2 13.8%
3. 0–0 13.7%
4. 1–1 12.4%
5. 1–2 8.2%
6. 0–3 6.9%
7. 1–0 5.9%
8. 1–3 4.1%