Minerul Lupeni vs FC Politehnica Timisoara result

Goals and cards

1. 53' Yellow card Minerul Lupeni
2. 56' Goal FC Politehnica Timisoara
3. 57' Yellow card Minerul Lupeni
4. 77' Goal Minerul Lupeni
5. 88' Yellow card FC Politehnica Timisoara

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects FC Politehnica Timisoara to score about 0.5 more. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 6188 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.00× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 0-0 (18%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• FC Politehnica Timisoara has a new coach, Dan Alexa, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Minerul Lupeni attack scores 11% less than average, against FC Politehnica Timisoara defence, which lets in 55% fewer than average: 0.70 goals (an average side here: 1.75)
• FC Politehnica Timisoara attack scores 16% more than average, against Minerul Lupeni defence, which lets in 45% fewer than average: 1.12 goals (an average side here: 1.75)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Minerul Lupeni 0.64, FC Politehnica Timisoara 1.18.

Ratings from 78 matches for Minerul Lupeni and 98 for FC Politehnica Timisoara, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Minerul Lupeni score 1.1 a game — 18th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 2 of Minerul Lupeni’s last 10.
• FC Politehnica Timisoara score 1.7 a game — 72nd percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–0 17.8%
2. 0–1 17.5%
3. 1–1 13.8%
4. 0–2 11.3%
5. 1–0 8.8%
6. 1–2 7.2%
7. 0–3 4.4%
8. 2–1 3.9%