Corona Braşov vs Arges Pitesti result

Goals and cards

1. 17' Goal Gabriel Charpentier Arges Pitesti
2. 26' Goal Silviu Balaure Arges Pitesti
3. 31' Yellow card Arges Pitesti
4. 60' Yellow card Arges Pitesti
5. 90+2' Goal Arges Pitesti

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Arges Pitesti to score about 0.4 more.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 6188 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.27× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (15%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Arges Pitesti has a new coach, Bogdan Andone, for its last 3 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Corona Braşov attack scores 28% more than average, against Arges Pitesti defence, which lets in 64% fewer than average: 1.01 goals (an average side here: 2.22)
• Arges Pitesti attack scores 35% more than average, against Corona Braşov defence, which lets in 45% fewer than average: 1.29 goals (an average side here: 1.75)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Corona Braşov 0.97, Arges Pitesti 1.34.

Ratings from 15 matches for Corona Braşov and 109 for Arges Pitesti, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Corona Braşov score 3.3 a game — 98th percentile in this competition.
• Arges Pitesti win 5.1 corners a game — 89th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 2 of Arges Pitesti’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 14.6%
2. 0–0 11.6%
3. 0–1 11.6%
4. 0–2 8.9%
5. 1–2 8.6%
6. 1–0 8.0%
7. 2–1 6.3%
8. 2–0 4.7%