FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva match stats & report
2–1 Full time
FC Orenburg stats & fixtures · Rodina Moskva stats & fixtures
FC Orenburg beat Rodina Moskva 2–1 in the Cup (Group Stage - 5) on 28 October 2026. FC Orenburg had 54% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave FC Orenburg 57%, the draw 24% and Rodina Moskva 19%.
FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva match statistics
- 54% Ball possession 46%
- 7 Total shots 8
- 3 Shots on target 4
- 4 Shots off target 4
- 0 Blocked shots 0
- 9 Corners 3
- 5 Yellow cards 1
- 0 Red cards 0
Goals and cards
- 14' Yellow card M. Pykhcheev FC Orenburg
- 32' Yellow card E. Nazarenko FC Orenburg
- 58' Goal I. Timoshenko (assist A. Maksimenko) Rodina Moskva
- 62' Yellow card João Silva FC Orenburg
- 66' Yellow card A. Kasimov FC Orenburg
- 66' Yellow card I. Pozo Rodina Moskva
- 74' Goal D. Puebla FC Orenburg
- 77' Goal Renat Golybin (assist D. Puebla) FC Orenburg
- 89' Yellow card J. Thompson FC Orenburg
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Called it: FC Orenburg +1.5 handicap: not lose by 2+, 93% before kick-off
- 57%FC Orenburg fair odds 1.75
- 24%Draw fair odds 4.20
- 19%Rodina Moskva fair odds 5.28
Most likely score 1-1 (11.1%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects FC Orenburg to score about 0.9 more and playing at home is worth roughly 25% in this competition.
Medium confidence — Fitted on 5679 matches.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
FC Orenburg
Attack 1.79 · Defence 0.49
Last five: WDWWW, scored 14, conceded 5
Rodina Moskva
Attack 1.67 · Defence 0.58
Last five: WDLLL, scored 7, conceded 12
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.25× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last 2 meetings: FC Orenburg won 1, 1 drawn, Rodina Moskva won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (11%). Confidence: Medium.
Flags and warnings
- Rodina Moskva has a new coach, Jonatan Alba, for its last 4 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- FC Orenburg attack scores 79% more than average, against Rodina Moskva defence, which lets in 42% fewer than average: 1.92 goals (an average side here: 1.86)
- Rodina Moskva attack scores 67% more than average, against FC Orenburg defence, which lets in 51% fewer than average: 1.20 goals (an average side here: 1.49)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on FC Orenburg 2.02, Rodina Moskva 1.10.
Ratings from 111 matches for FC Orenburg and 107 for Rodina Moskva, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Rodina Moskva have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
- Rodina Moskva score 0.9 a game — 24th percentile in this competition.
- FC Orenburg win 5.1 corners a game — 69th percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.06 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.66 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 2.64 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 21% | 4.88 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 6% | 17.55 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17% | 5.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.52 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 79% | 1.26 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| Both teams to score: No | 41% | 2.45 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected cards: 4.3
FC Orenburg 2.2 · Rodina Moskva 2.1
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 4.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 5.5 | 26% | 74% |
| 6.5 | 15% | 85% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (64 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 11.1%
- 2–1 9.9%
- 2–0 9.0%
- 1–0 7.6%
- 3–1 6.7%
- 3–0 6.0%
- 0–0 5.7%
- 2–2 5.5%
Team news & lineups
FC Orenburg
Bench G. Guzina , D. Puebla , S. Poroykov , M. Sivis , J. Palacios , A. Tataev , O. Minatulaev , J. Thompson , E. Bolotov , V. Korobov , E. Tsenov
Rodina Moskva
Bench D. Shadrintsev , Y. Reyna , M. Nadé , L. Musaev , B. Mansilla , M. Križan , A. Gordyushenko , K. Cissoko , S. Bakaev , M. Abdusalamov , I. Svinov
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
FC Orenburg at home
5–4–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.6 per game
- Conceded
- 1.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 5.1 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.9 per game
36% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Rodina Moskva away
2–0–8 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.9 per game
- Conceded
- 2.2 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- Corners
- 3.6 per game
- Shots on target
- 2.8 per game
0% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moskva v FC Orenburg | 2–2 | |
| Rodina Moskva v FC Orenburg | 1–4 |
Only 2 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 92% | 1.08 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 87% | 1.15 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 81% | 1.23 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 81% | 1.23 |
| Home/Away double chance | 76% | 1.31 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 67% | 1.50 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 65% | 1.54 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 60% | 1.67 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 57% | 1.75 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 43% | 2.34 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 43% | 2.34 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 35% | 2.84 |
| Home clean sheet | 33% | 3.01 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 33% | 3.05 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 30% | 3.31 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 19% | 5.28 |
| Away clean sheet | 13% | 7.51 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 10% | 10.00 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 8% | 13.32 |