Şanlıurfaspor vs Gölcükspor result

Goals and cards

1. 10' Goal F. Ekinci Şanlıurfaspor
2. 43' Goal O. Dogan Şanlıurfaspor
3. 64' Goal I. Burak Isik Şanlıurfaspor
4. 87' Goal T. Asiku Gölcükspor

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Şanlıurfaspor to score about 1.0 more and playing at home is worth roughly 23% in this competition.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.23× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (11%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Şanlıurfaspor has a new coach, E. Sözeri, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Şanlıurfaspor attack scores 14% more than average, against Gölcükspor defence, which lets in 10% fewer than average: 1.86 goals (an average side here: 1.82)
• Gölcükspor attack scores about the average, against Şanlıurfaspor defence, which lets in 26% fewer than average: 1.08 goals (an average side here: 1.48)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Şanlıurfaspor 1.97, Gölcükspor 0.97.

Ratings from 112 matches for Şanlıurfaspor and 10 for Gölcükspor, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Gölcükspor have kept 0 clean sheets in 6.
• Şanlıurfaspor score 2.3 a game — 88th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 7 of Şanlıurfaspor’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 11.4%
2. 2–0 10.3%
3. 2–1 10.0%
4. 1–0 9.1%
5. 3–0 6.8%
6. 0–0 6.6%
7. 3–1 6.5%
8. 1–2 4.9%