Menemen FK vs Karacabey Belediyespor result

Goals and cards

1. 30' Red card M. E. Sapanci Menemen FK
2. 71' Goal Karacabey Belediyespor

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Menemen FK to score about 0.6 more and playing at home is worth roughly 23% in this competition.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.23× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Menemen FK has a new coach, B. Basatemür, for its last 2 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Karacabey Belediyespor has a new coach, Erdogan Yilmaz, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Menemen FK attack scores 11% more than average, against Karacabey Belediyespor defence, which lets in 15% fewer than average: 1.71 goals (an average side here: 1.82)
• Karacabey Belediyespor attack scores about the average, against Menemen FK defence, which lets in 18% fewer than average: 1.23 goals (an average side here: 1.48)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Menemen FK 1.79, Karacabey Belediyespor 1.16.

Ratings from 107 matches for Menemen FK and 109 for Karacabey Belediyespor, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Karacabey Belediyespor have kept 5 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 12.3%
2. 2–1 9.7%
3. 2–0 8.4%
4. 1–0 8.0%
5. 0–0 6.7%
6. 1–2 6.3%
7. 3–1 5.8%
8. 2–2 5.6%