Fatih Karagümrük vs Somaspor result

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Fatih Karagümrük to score about 1.9 more and playing at home is worth roughly 23% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 7282 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.23× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 2-0 (13%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Fatih Karagümrük has a new coach, A. Stanojević, for its last 4 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Somaspor has a new coach, E. Güraçar, for its last 2 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Fatih Karagümrük attack scores 25% more than average, against Somaspor defence, which lets in 5% more than average: 2.38 goals (an average side here: 1.82)
• Somaspor attack scores 6% less than average, against Fatih Karagümrük defence, which lets in 39% fewer than average: 0.85 goals (an average side here: 1.48)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Fatih Karagümrük 2.56, Somaspor 0.67.

Ratings from 131 matches for Fatih Karagümrük and 105 for Somaspor, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Fatih Karagümrük win 0.5 corners a game — 11th percentile in this competition.
• Somaspor score 0.8 a game — 26th percentile in this competition.
• Fatih Karagümrük score 1.1 a game — 30th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 2–0 13.0%
2. 3–0 11.1%
3. 1–0 9.3%
4. 2–1 8.7%
5. 1–1 7.7%
6. 3–1 7.4%
7. 4–0 7.1%
8. 0–0 4.9%