Karabük İdman Yurdu vs İskenderunspor prediction & stats

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same.

High confidence — Fitted on 7282 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.23× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• Karabük İdman Yurdu has a new coach, E. Büyüktepe, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• İskenderunspor has a new coach, S. Tolungüç, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Karabük İdman Yurdu attack scores 15% less than average, against İskenderunspor defence, which lets in 9% fewer than average: 1.40 goals (an average side here: 1.82)
• İskenderunspor attack scores about the average, against Karabük İdman Yurdu defence, which lets in 6% fewer than average: 1.41 goals (an average side here: 1.48)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Karabük İdman Yurdu 1.40, İskenderunspor 1.41.

Ratings from 93 matches for Karabük İdman Yurdu and 111 for İskenderunspor, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• İskenderunspor have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
• İskenderunspor score 0.7 a game — 21st percentile in this competition.
• Karabük İdman Yurdu score 1.1 a game — 30th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 13.4%
2. 1–2 8.4%
3. 2–1 8.3%
4. 0–0 7.5%
5. 0–1 6.9%
6. 1–0 6.9%
7. 0–2 6.0%
8. 2–0 5.9%