Balıkesirspor vs Arnavutköy Belediyespor result

Goals and cards

1. 54' Goal G. Yilmaz Balıkesirspor

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Balıkesirspor to score about 1.3 more and playing at home is worth roughly 23% in this competition.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 7282 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.23× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 2-0 (12%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Balıkesirspor has a new coach, L. Eriş, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Arnavutköy Belediyespor has a new coach, İ. Püren, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Balıkesirspor attack scores 23% more than average, against Arnavutköy Belediyespor defence, which lets in 9% fewer than average: 2.02 goals (an average side here: 1.82)
• Arnavutköy Belediyespor attack scores 17% less than average, against Balıkesirspor defence, which lets in 20% fewer than average: 0.98 goals (an average side here: 1.48)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Balıkesirspor 2.16, Arnavutköy Belediyespor 0.85.

Ratings from 95 matches for Balıkesirspor and 103 for Arnavutköy Belediyespor, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Arnavutköy Belediyespor score 0.4 a game — 8th percentile in this competition.
• Balıkesirspor score 2.5 a game — 90th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 2 of Arnavutköy Belediyespor’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 2–0 11.6%
2. 1–1 10.2%
3. 2–1 9.8%
4. 1–0 9.5%
5. 3–0 8.3%
6. 3–1 7.0%
7. 0–0 6.1%
8. 4–0 4.5%