Adana 01 FK vs Kütahyaspor result

Goals and cards

1. 16' Penalty missed T. Sezen (assist T. Sezen) Adana 01 FK
2. 36' Goal T. Sezen Adana 01 FK
3. 44' Goal C. Fedai Kütahyaspor
4. 114' Goal I. Kurt Adana 01 FK

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Adana 01 FK to score about 0.8 more and playing at home is worth roughly 23% in this competition.

High confidence — Fitted on 7282 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.23× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• Adana 01 FK has a new coach, C. Dumlupınar, for its last 2 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Kütahyaspor has a new coach, C. Laleci, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Adana 01 FK attack scores 22% more than average, against Kütahyaspor defence, which lets in 20% fewer than average: 1.78 goals (an average side here: 1.82)
• Kütahyaspor attack scores 16% more than average, against Adana 01 FK defence, which lets in 31% fewer than average: 1.18 goals (an average side here: 1.48)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Adana 01 FK 1.87, Kütahyaspor 1.10.

Ratings from 103 matches for Adana 01 FK and 101 for Kütahyaspor, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Adana 01 FK score 2.3 a game — 88th percentile in this competition.
• Kütahyaspor score 1.5 a game — 72nd percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 3 of Kütahyaspor’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 11.9%
2. 2–1 9.9%
3. 2–0 9.0%
4. 1–0 8.2%
5. 0–0 6.5%
6. 3–1 6.2%
7. 1–2 5.8%
8. 3–0 5.6%