Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan result

Goals and cards

1. 20' Yellow card Y. Agnero Lech Poznan
2. 45+1' Red card Y. Agnero Lech Poznan
3. 64' Goal A. Kasia Siarka Tarnobrzeg
4. 84' Yellow card T. Yegbe Lech Poznan
5. 90+3' Yellow card Pablo Rodríguez Lech Poznan

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Lech Poznan to score about 3.5 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 6598 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 0.83× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 0-4 (11%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack scores 6% more than average, against Lech Poznan defence, which lets in 51% fewer than average: 0.80 goals (an average side here: 1.53)
• Lech Poznan attack scores 112% more than average, against Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence, which lets in about the average: 3.84 goals (an average side here: 1.84)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Siarka Tarnobrzeg 0.53, Lech Poznan 4.08.

Ratings from 106 matches for Siarka Tarnobrzeg and 107 for Lech Poznan, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Lech Poznan score 2.3 a game — 99th percentile in this competition.
• Lech Poznan have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
• Lech Poznan win 5.3 corners a game — 80th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–4 11.5%
2. 0–3 11.2%
3. 0–5 9.4%
4. 0–2 8.2%
5. 0–6 6.5%
6. 1–4 6.1%
7. 1–3 6.0%
8. 1–5 5.0%