Serik Spor vs Hakkari Zapspor result

Goals and cards

1. 63' Goal M. Tektas Hakkari Zapspor
2. 90' Goal K. Kosker Serik Spor

Penalty shoot-out: 5–4

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Serik Spor to score about 2.9 more and playing at home is worth roughly 23% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.23× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Hakkari Zapspor has had 17 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 3-0 (9%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Serik Spor has a new coach, G. Geylani, for its last 2 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Serik Spor attack scores 8% more than average, against Hakkari Zapspor defence, which lets in 78% more than average: 3.50 goals (an average side here: 1.82)
• Hakkari Zapspor attack scores 21% less than average, against Serik Spor defence, which lets in 7% fewer than average: 1.09 goals (an average side here: 1.48)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Serik Spor 3.75, Hakkari Zapspor 0.83.

Ratings from 109 matches for Serik Spor and 3 for Hakkari Zapspor, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Serik Spor have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 3–0 9.0%
2. 4–0 8.5%
3. 3–1 7.5%
4. 2–0 7.2%
5. 4–1 7.0%
6. 5–0 6.4%
7. 2–1 6.0%
8. 5–1 5.3%