Ankaraspor vs Kırklarelispor result

Goals and cards

1. 9' Goal B. Adiguzel (assist M. Cakmak) Ankaraspor
2. 16' Goal Ankaraspor
3. 83' Goal I. Kose (assist F. Gunes) Kırklarelispor
4. 90' Goal A. Koc (assist I. Kose) Kırklarelispor
5. 103' Goal Ankaraspor

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Ankaraspor to score about 0.7 more and playing at home is worth roughly 23% in this competition.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 7282 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.23× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Ankaraspor has a new coach, M. Ak, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Kırklarelispor has a new coach, A. Duman, for its last 7 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Ankaraspor attack scores 10% more than average, against Kırklarelispor defence, which lets in 17% fewer than average: 1.66 goals (an average side here: 1.82)
• Kırklarelispor attack scores 12% less than average, against Ankaraspor defence, which lets in 13% fewer than average: 1.13 goals (an average side here: 1.48)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Ankaraspor 1.74, Kırklarelispor 1.05.

Ratings from 105 matches for Ankaraspor and 108 for Kırklarelispor, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Ankaraspor have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
• Kırklarelispor score 0.4 a game — 8th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 2 of Kırklarelispor’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 12.7%
2. 2–1 9.8%
3. 2–0 9.3%
4. 1–0 9.2%
5. 0–0 7.6%
6. 1–2 5.9%
7. 3–1 5.6%
8. 3–0 5.4%