Yokohama F. Marinos vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima result

Goals and cards

1. 7' Yellow card Y. Tanaka Yokohama F. Marinos
2. 15' Yellow card T. Inoue Yokohama F. Marinos
3. 30' Yellow card K. Sekitomi Yokohama F. Marinos
4. 45' Yellow card S. Miidera Yokohama F. Marinos
5. 50' Yellow card T. Asano Sanfrecce Hiroshima
6. 53' Goal R. Nitta Yokohama F. Marinos
7. 58' Goal K. Hirano Yokohama F. Marinos
8. 66' Goal H. Araki (assist S. Higashi) Sanfrecce Hiroshima
9. 74' Goal N. Arai Sanfrecce Hiroshima
10. 75' Goal G. Onaiwu Yokohama F. Marinos
11. 78' Yellow card D. Tono Yokohama F. Marinos
12. 81' Goal N. Arai (assist S. Kobayashi) Sanfrecce Hiroshima
13. 85' Yellow card T. Kondo Yokohama F. Marinos
14. 90+4' Own goal Kim Ju-Sung Yokohama F. Marinos

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score about 0.6 more.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.16× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: Yokohama F. Marinos won 3, 1 drawn, Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 2. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Yokohama F. Marinos attack scores 72% more than average, against Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence, which lets in 58% fewer than average: 1.28 goals (an average side here: 1.75)
• Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack scores 108% more than average, against Yokohama F. Marinos defence, which lets in 46% fewer than average: 1.71 goals (an average side here: 1.52)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Yokohama F. Marinos 1.21, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.77.

Ratings from 123 matches for Yokohama F. Marinos and 133 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 9 corners a game — 100th percentile in this competition.
• Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 1.8 a game — 93rd percentile in this competition.
• Yokohama F. Marinos score 2.2 a game — 88th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 12.3%
2. 1–2 9.6%
3. 0–2 7.9%
4. 0–1 7.5%
5. 2–1 6.6%
6. 0–0 6.5%
7. 2–2 5.8%
8. 1–3 5.7%