Sagan Tosu vs Kawasaki Frontale result
0–2 Full time
Sagan Tosu stats & fixtures · Kawasaki Frontale stats & fixtures
Sagan Tosu lost to Kawasaki Frontale 0–2 in the J-League Cup (Round of 16) on 28 October 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Sagan Tosu 23%, the draw 25% and Kawasaki Frontale 52%.
Goals and cards
- 64' Yellow card Y. Matsunagane Kawasaki Frontale
- 65' Goal Shuto Yamaichi Kawasaki Frontale
- 75' Yellow card N. Sakai Sagan Tosu
- 86' Goal Marcinho Kawasaki Frontale
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Called it: Kawasaki Frontale to win, 52% before kick-off
- 23%Sagan Tosu fair odds 4.37
- 25%Draw fair odds 4.00
- 52%Kawasaki Frontale fair odds 1.92
Most likely score 1-1 (11.6%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Kawasaki Frontale to score about 0.7 more.
Medium confidence — Fitted on 4154 matches.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Sagan Tosu
Attack 1.22 · Defence 0.60
Last five: WLWWW, scored 8, conceded 4
Kawasaki Frontale
Attack 2.02 · Defence 0.61
Last five: WWWWL, scored 13, conceded 6
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.16× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last 4 meetings: Sagan Tosu won 1, 0 drawn, Kawasaki Frontale won 3. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: Medium.
Flags and warnings
- Sagan Tosu has a new coach, Akio Kogiku, for its last 6 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Sagan Tosu attack scores 22% more than average, against Kawasaki Frontale defence, which lets in 39% fewer than average: 1.29 goals (an average side here: 1.75)
- Kawasaki Frontale attack scores 102% more than average, against Sagan Tosu defence, which lets in 40% fewer than average: 1.82 goals (an average side here: 1.52)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Sagan Tosu 1.21, Kawasaki Frontale 1.90.
Ratings from 118 matches for Sagan Tosu and 123 for Kawasaki Frontale, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Kawasaki Frontale score 1.8 a game — 93rd percentile in this competition.
- Kawasaki Frontale win 3.4 corners a game — 28th percentile in this competition.
- Sagan Tosu score 1.6 a game — 66th percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.06 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.66 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 2.65 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20% | 4.90 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 6% | 17.30 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17% | 5.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.51 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 80% | 1.26 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| Both teams to score: No | 39% | 2.57 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 11.6%
- 1–2 9.7%
- 0–2 8.0%
- 0–1 7.1%
- 2–1 6.2%
- 1–3 6.2%
- 2–2 5.9%
- 0–0 5.8%
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
Sagan Tosu at home
6–1–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.6 per game
- Conceded
- 1.1 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Kawasaki Frontale away
5–2–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.8 per game
- Conceded
- 1.2 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 3.4 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.7 per game
28% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Sagan Tosu vs Kawasaki Frontale head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale v Sagan Tosu | 3–2 | |
| Sagan Tosu v Kawasaki Frontale | 5–2 | |
| Sagan Tosu v Kawasaki Frontale | 0–1 | |
| Kawasaki Frontale v Sagan Tosu | 1–0 |
Only 4 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
The full Sagan Tosu vs Kawasaki Frontale head-to-head record
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 90% | 1.11 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 85% | 1.18 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 77% | 1.30 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 77% | 1.30 |
| Home/Away double chance | 75% | 1.33 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 70% | 1.42 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 69% | 1.44 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 57% | 1.77 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 52% | 1.92 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 48% | 2.09 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 48% | 2.09 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 34% | 2.92 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 31% | 3.26 |
| Away clean sheet | 30% | 3.36 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 30% | 3.38 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 23% | 4.37 |
| Home clean sheet | 15% | 6.68 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 12% | 8.11 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 10% | 10.29 |