Mito Hollyhock vs Cerezo Osaka result

Goals and cards

1. 33' Goal T. Nakamura Cerezo Osaka
2. 37' Yellow card K. Okazawa Cerezo Osaka
3. 46' Goal Patryck Ferreira Mito Hollyhock
4. 56' Goal S. Sakuragawa (assist Javi Hernández) Cerezo Osaka
5. 71' Goal S. Sakuragawa Cerezo Osaka
6. 76' Yellow card T. Semba Mito Hollyhock
7. 82' Yellow card K. Tada Mito Hollyhock
8. 82' Yellow card Mito Hollyhock
9. 84' Yellow card K. Yamazaki Mito Hollyhock
10. 88' Yellow card K. Shimatani Mito Hollyhock

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Cerezo Osaka to score about 0.6 more.

High confidence — Fitted on 4154 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.16× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Mito Hollyhock attack scores 21% more than average, against Cerezo Osaka defence, which lets in 41% fewer than average: 1.26 goals (an average side here: 1.75)
• Cerezo Osaka attack scores 76% more than average, against Mito Hollyhock defence, which lets in 36% fewer than average: 1.70 goals (an average side here: 1.52)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Mito Hollyhock 1.20, Cerezo Osaka 1.77.

Ratings from 110 matches for Mito Hollyhock and 123 for Cerezo Osaka, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Cerezo Osaka have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
• Mito Hollyhock win 3.3 corners a game — 6th percentile in this competition.
• Mito Hollyhock have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 12.3%
2. 1–2 9.6%
3. 0–2 8.1%
4. 0–1 7.7%
5. 0–0 6.6%
6. 2–1 6.5%
7. 2–2 5.8%
8. 1–3 5.7%