Kawkab Marrakech vs Difaa EL Jadida match stats & report

Kawkab Marrakech vs Difaa EL Jadida match statistics

• 39% Ball possession 61%
• 5 Total shots 10
• 4 Shots on target 6
• 1 Shots off target 4
• 0 Blocked shots 0
• 5 Corners 7
• 3 Yellow cards 3
• 1 Red cards 0

Goals and cards

1. 18' Yellow card Difaa EL Jadida
2. 19' Penalty scored H. Smaali Kawkab Marrakech
3. 21' Yellow card Difaa EL Jadida
4. 41' Yellow card Kawkab Marrakech
5. 45+2' Red card Kawkab Marrakech
6. 45+8' Yellow card O. Mahrous Kawkab Marrakech
7. 77' Yellow card Anass Mostakime Difaa EL Jadida
8. 83' Yellow card Difaa EL Jadida
9. 88' Yellow card Y. Raiani Kawkab Marrakech
10. 90' Penalty scored Mouad mouchtanim Difaa EL Jadida

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same and this competition has almost no home advantage.

High confidence — Fitted on 521 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.06× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Kawkab Marrakech’s last five moved its expected goals by +4.0%. In the numbers
• Difaa EL Jadida’s last five moved its expected goals by +2.7%. In the numbers
• Last 3 meetings: Kawkab Marrakech won 0, 2 drawn, Difaa EL Jadida won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (14%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• Kawkab Marrakech is new to this competition: rated from 34 matches, starting where new sides usually land. In the numbers
• Difaa EL Jadida’s last five run against its rating: +0.6 a match scored, +1.6 conceded. Weighed as measured on 15,577 matches: +2.7% to its expected goals. In the numbers
• Kawkab Marrakech has a new coach, Y. Safri, for its last 3 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Difaa EL Jadida has a new coach, Ricardo Chéu, for its last 3 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Kawkab Marrakech attack scores 7% less than average, against Difaa EL Jadida defence, which lets in 13% more than average: 1.21 goals (an average side here: 1.16)
• Difaa EL Jadida attack scores 13% more than average, against Kawkab Marrakech defence, which lets in 14% fewer than average: 1.06 goals (an average side here: 1.09)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Kawkab Marrakech 1.24, Difaa EL Jadida 1.09.

Ratings from 34 matches for Kawkab Marrakech and 64 for Difaa EL Jadida, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Difaa EL Jadida win 4.5 corners a game — 100th percentile in this competition.
• Difaa EL Jadida score 1.4 a game — 94th percentile in this competition.
• Kawkab Marrakech score 1.5 a game — 88th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected cards: 4.3

Kawkab Marrakech 2.1 · Difaa EL Jadida 2.1

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (104 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 14.2%
2. 1–0 11.0%
3. 0–0 10.9%
4. 0–1 9.3%
5. 2–1 8.3%
6. 2–0 7.5%
7. 1–2 7.2%
8. 0–2 5.9%