Sporting CP vs Maritimo result

Goals and cards

1. 39' Yellow card Rafael Fernandes Maritimo
2. 44' Goal Pedro Lima (assist J. Derry) Sporting CP
3. 57' Yellow card Eduardo Quaresma Sporting CP
4. 71' Goal Pedro Lima Sporting CP
5. 90' Goal Adrián Butzke (assist Igor Julião) Maritimo

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Sporting CP to score about 2.7 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.14× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 2 meetings: Sporting CP won 1, 0 drawn, Maritimo won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 3-0 (13%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Sporting CP attack scores 104% more than average, against Maritimo defence, which lets in 4% more than average: 3.01 goals (an average side here: 1.42)
• Maritimo attack scores 6% less than average, against Sporting CP defence, which lets in 35% fewer than average: 0.76 goals (an average side here: 1.25)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Sporting CP 3.23, Maritimo 0.54.

Ratings from 111 matches for Sporting CP and 103 for Maritimo, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Maritimo have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
• Sporting CP score 2.4 a game — 88th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 8 of Sporting CP’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 3–0 12.9%
2. 2–0 12.0%
3. 4–0 10.4%
4. 3–1 7.0%
5. 1–0 6.9%
6. 5–0 6.7%
7. 2–1 6.5%
8. 4–1 5.7%