Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano match stats & report

Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano match statistics

• 33% Ball possession 67%
• 12 Total shots 35
• 6 Shots on target 8
• 3 Shots off target 19
• 3 Blocked shots 8
• 8 Shots inside the box 24
• 0 Corners 15
• 14 Fouls 18
• 0 Offsides 1
• 4 Yellow cards 4
• 1 Red cards 1
• 394 Passes 787
• 69% Pass accuracy 86%
• 4 Goalkeeper saves 4

Goals and cards

1. 21' Yellow card Ivan Alonso Martin Rayo Vallecano
2. 23' Goal Ale Marín (assist L. Dasilva) Recreativo Huelva
3. 32' Yellow card Ale Marín Recreativo Huelva
4. 41' Red card Roan Riera Recreativo Huelva
5. 43' Penalty scored Alemão Rayo Vallecano
6. 84' Yellow card G. Tsitaishvili Rayo Vallecano
7. 97' Goal Alemão (assist Álvaro García) Rayo Vallecano
8. 99' Goal J. de Frutos (assist Álvaro García) Rayo Vallecano
9. 108' Red card F. Lejeune Rayo Vallecano
10. 109' Penalty scored Paolo Romero Recreativo Huelva
11. 111' Yellow card Mateo Izaguirre Recreativo Huelva
12. 115' Yellow card Alemão Rayo Vallecano
13. 120+1' Yellow card C. A. Wehbe Gonzalez Recreativo Huelva

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Rayo Vallecano to score about 1.1 more.

High confidence — Fitted on 26895 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 0-2 (13%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• Recreativo Huelva has a new coach, Raúl Galbarro, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Recreativo Huelva attack scores 13% more than average, against Rayo Vallecano defence, which lets in 56% fewer than average: 0.85 goals (an average side here: 1.71)
• Rayo Vallecano attack scores 97% more than average, against Recreativo Huelva defence, which lets in 31% fewer than average: 1.76 goals (an average side here: 1.29)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Recreativo Huelva 0.73, Rayo Vallecano 1.88.

Ratings from 152 matches for Recreativo Huelva and 125 for Rayo Vallecano, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Rayo Vallecano have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
• Recreativo Huelva win 0 corners a game — 2nd percentile in this competition.
• Rayo Vallecano win 6.5 corners a game — 97th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–2 13.0%
2. 0–1 12.5%
3. 1–1 11.4%
4. 1–2 9.5%
5. 0–0 8.6%
6. 0–3 8.1%
7. 1–3 5.9%
8. 1–0 4.1%