Manacor vs Villarreal result

Goals and cards

1. 12' Yellow card Manacor
2. 13' Goal A. Diatta (assist Alberto Moleiro) Villarreal
3. 26' Goal T. Oluwaseyi (assist N. El Jmili) Villarreal
4. 47' Goal Sergi Cardona (assist T. Oluwaseyi) Villarreal
5. 55' Goal N. El Jmili (assist A. Diatta) Villarreal
6. 62' Yellow card A. Freeman Villarreal
7. 68' Goal N. Pépé (assist N. El Jmili) Villarreal
8. 85' Yellow card P. Oliver Manacor

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Villarreal to score about 4.1 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 26894 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Manacor has had 3 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 0-4 (12%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Manacor attack scores about the average, against Villarreal defence, which lets in 57% fewer than average: 0.76 goals (an average side here: 1.71)
• Villarreal attack scores 208% more than average, against Manacor defence, which lets in 8% more than average: 4.33 goals (an average side here: 1.29)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Manacor 0.48, Villarreal 4.55.

Ratings from 108 matches for Manacor and 121 for Villarreal, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Villarreal score 2.1 a game — 97th percentile in this competition.
• Villarreal win 6.4 corners a game — 95th percentile in this competition.
• Villarreal have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–4 11.7%
2. 0–5 10.8%
3. 0–3 10.2%
4. 0–6 8.3%
5. 0–2 6.6%
6. 1–4 5.6%
7. 0–7 5.4%
8. 1–5 5.2%