Atlético Paso vs Cordoba result

Goals and cards

1. 30' Goal Ibai Sanz (assist T. Zidane) Cordoba
2. 32' Yellow card S. El Jebari Cordoba
3. 56' Yellow card I. Munoz Atlético Paso
4. 64' Red card Cordoba
5. 64' Yellow card Guilherme Fernandes Cordoba
6. 64' Goal I. Villoslada Atlético Paso
7. 76' Goal I. Villoslada Atlético Paso
8. 80' Yellow card Atlético Paso
9. 90+5' Goal I. Villoslada Atlético Paso

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Cordoba to score about 1.2 more.

High confidence — Fitted on 26894 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 0-2 (12%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Atlético Paso attack scores 11% less than average, against Cordoba defence, which lets in 41% fewer than average: 0.90 goals (an average side here: 1.71)
• Cordoba attack scores 90% more than average, against Atlético Paso defence, which lets in 26% fewer than average: 1.81 goals (an average side here: 1.29)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Atlético Paso 0.78, Cordoba 1.93.

Ratings from 105 matches for Atlético Paso and 131 for Cordoba, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Both teams have scored in 9 of Cordoba’s last 10.
• Cordoba win 5.3 corners a game — 89th percentile in this competition.
• Cordoba have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–2 12.4%
2. 0–1 11.5%
3. 1–1 11.3%
4. 1–2 9.7%
5. 0–3 8.0%
6. 0–0 7.9%
7. 1–3 6.2%
8. 2–1 3.9%