Arosa vs Pontevedra result
2–0 Full time
Arosa stats & fixtures · Pontevedra stats & fixtures
Arosa beat Pontevedra 2–0 in the Copa del Rey (Round of 128) on 27 October 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Arosa 22%, the draw 27% and Pontevedra 51%.
Goals and cards
- 16' Yellow card R. Ergouai Pontevedra
- 26' Yellow card S. Santos Arosa
- 55' Goal M. Remeseiro Arosa
- 58' Yellow card A. Rey Arosa
- 66' Goal Gabri Palmas Arosa
- 66' Yellow card Y. Pino Pontevedra
- 81' Yellow card A. Concheiro Arosa
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Missed: Pontevedra to win, 51% before kick-off
- 22%Arosa fair odds 4.58
- 27%Draw fair odds 3.72
- 51%Pontevedra fair odds 1.95
Most likely score 1-1 (12.8%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Pontevedra to score about 0.7 more.
High confidence — Fitted on 26894 matches, and close to what the market implies.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Arosa
Attack 1.17 · Defence 0.92
Last five: LWDDL, scored 8, conceded 9
Pontevedra
Attack 1.37 · Defence 0.56
Last five: WWLLD, scored 5, conceded 6
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last meeting: Arosa won 1, 0 drawn, Pontevedra won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: High.
Flags and warnings
- Arosa has a new coach, Lemos, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
- Pontevedra has a new coach, Ruben Dominguez, for its last 6 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Arosa attack scores 17% more than average, against Pontevedra defence, which lets in 44% fewer than average: 1.13 goals (an average side here: 1.71)
- Pontevedra attack scores 37% more than average, against Arosa defence, which lets in 8% fewer than average: 1.64 goals (an average side here: 1.29)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Arosa 1.05, Pontevedra 1.71.
Ratings from 107 matches for Arosa and 116 for Pontevedra, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Arosa score 1.8 a game — 74th percentile in this competition.
- Arosa have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.29 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.92 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 3.34 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 15% | 6.83 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 8% | 12.83 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22% | 4.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 85% | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| Both teams to score: No | 45% | 2.21 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 12.8%
- 1–2 9.7%
- 0–1 9.3%
- 0–2 9.2%
- 0–0 7.8%
- 2–1 6.0%
- 1–3 5.5%
- 0–3 5.3%
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
Arosa at home
5–2–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.8 per game
- Conceded
- 1.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Pontevedra away
3–2–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.1 per game
- Conceded
- 1.5 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Arosa vs Pontevedra head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Arosa v Pontevedra | 3–1 |
Only 1 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 91% | 1.09 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 82% | 1.22 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 78% | 1.28 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 78% | 1.28 |
| Home/Away double chance | 73% | 1.37 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 71% | 1.41 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 65% | 1.54 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 51% | 1.95 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 51% | 1.96 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 49% | 2.05 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 49% | 2.05 |
| Away clean sheet | 35% | 2.87 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 29% | 3.47 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 28% | 3.53 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 25% | 4.08 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 22% | 4.58 |
| Home clean sheet | 18% | 5.52 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 9% | 11.08 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 9% | 11.63 |