Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal match stats & report

Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal match statistics

• 48% Ball possession 52%
• 0.34 Expected goals (xG) 2.29
• 3 Total shots 26
• 2 Shots on target 7
• 0 Shots off target 9
• 1 Blocked shots 10
• 3 Shots inside the box 23
• 2 Corners 5
• 14 Fouls 5
• 3 Offsides 3
• 3 Yellow cards 0
• 0 Red cards 1
• 178 Passes 641
• 5 Goalkeeper saves 1

Goals and cards

1. 21' Goal A. Loupalo-Bi (assist H. Neal) Fleetwood Town
2. 50' Goal V. Gyökeres Arsenal
3. 54' Yellow card C. McLean Fleetwood Town
4. 74' Yellow card Jake Thomas Batty Fleetwood Town
5. 85' Red card M. Dowman Arsenal
6. 86' Yellow card A. Cannon Fleetwood Town

Penalty shoot-out: 5–3

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Arsenal to score about 2.8 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 12206 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.21× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 0-3 (13%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Fleetwood Town attack scores 10% more than average, against Arsenal defence, which lets in 65% fewer than average: 0.77 goals (an average side here: 1.99)
• Arsenal attack scores 201% more than average, against Fleetwood Town defence, which lets in 36% fewer than average: 3.15 goals (an average side here: 1.65)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Fleetwood Town 0.54, Arsenal 3.37.

Ratings from 158 matches for Fleetwood Town and 130 for Arsenal, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Arsenal score 1.7 a game — 82nd percentile in this competition.
• Fleetwood Town score 2 a game — 79th percentile in this competition.
• Fleetwood Town win 4.7 corners a game — 26th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 9.9

Fleetwood Town 4.6 · Arsenal 5.3

Expected cards: 3.4

Fleetwood Town 1.8 · Arsenal 1.7

Expected shots on target: 8.2

Fleetwood Town 3.6 · Arsenal 4.6

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (78 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–3 12.7%
2. 0–2 11.3%
3. 0–4 10.8%
4. 0–5 7.3%
5. 1–3 6.9%
6. 0–1 6.2%
7. 1–2 6.1%
8. 1–4 5.8%