1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin match stats & report

1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin match statistics

• 55% Ball possession 45%
• 3.04 Expected goals (xG) 1.10
• 14 Total shots 17
• 8 Shots on target 4
• 5 Shots off target 6
• 1 Blocked shots 7
• 12 Shots inside the box 14
• 3 Corners 4
• 8 Fouls 16
• 0 Offsides 1
• 1 Yellow cards 3
• 0 Red cards 0
• 487 Passes 393
• 4 Goalkeeper saves 3

Goals and cards

1. 32' Goal S. El Mala (assist L. Maina) 1. FC Köln
2. 48' Yellow card L. Querfeld Union Berlin
3. 51' Goal L. Maina (assist S. El Mala) 1. FC Köln
4. 60' Goal S. El Mala (assist M. Bülter) 1. FC Köln
5. 77' Yellow card M. Ljubičić Union Berlin
6. 78' Goal Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson (assist M. Bülter) 1. FC Köln
7. 84' Yellow card S. Sebulonsen 1. FC Köln
8. 88' Goal S. Sebulonsen (assist Reigan Heskey) 1. FC Köln
9. 90' Yellow card Livan Burcu Union Berlin

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects 1. FC Köln to score about 0.3 more and playing at home is worth roughly 18% in this competition.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.18× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: 1. FC Köln won 1, 2 drawn, Union Berlin won 3. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• 1. FC Köln has a new coach, René Wagner, for its last 8 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• 1. FC Köln attack scores 33% more than average, against Union Berlin defence, which lets in 43% fewer than average: 1.57 goals (an average side here: 2.05)
• Union Berlin attack scores 32% more than average, against 1. FC Köln defence, which lets in 42% fewer than average: 1.33 goals (an average side here: 1.74)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on 1. FC Köln 1.60, Union Berlin 1.29.

Ratings from 108 matches for 1. FC Köln and 107 for Union Berlin, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Union Berlin have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
• Union Berlin score 0.9 a game — 8th percentile in this competition.
• Union Berlin win 3.4 corners a game — 14th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 12.9%
2. 2–1 9.2%
3. 1–2 7.4%
4. 1–0 7.4%
5. 2–0 7.1%
6. 0–0 7.0%
7. 2–2 5.9%
8. 0–1 5.7%