Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen match stats & report

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen match statistics

• 56% Ball possession 44%
• 1.44 Expected goals (xG) 1.59
• 12 Total shots 12
• 4 Shots on target 6
• 6 Shots off target 6
• 2 Blocked shots 0
• 7 Shots inside the box 7
• 4 Corners 3
• 14 Fouls 9
• 1 Offsides 1
• 2 Yellow cards 2
• 0 Red cards 0
• 612 Passes 480
• 4 Goalkeeper saves 1

Goals and cards

1. 6' Goal S. Guirassy (assist J. Ryerson) Borussia Dortmund
2. 17' Goal C. Chukwuemeka (assist J. Bellingham) Borussia Dortmund
3. 24' Yellow card A. Pieper Werder Bremen
4. 49' Yellow card J. Veerman Borussia Dortmund
5. 57' Yellow card Arthur Werder Bremen
6. 64' Yellow card J. Ryerson Borussia Dortmund
7. 65' Penalty scored N. Füllkrug Werder Bremen
8. 68' Goal N. Füllkrug (assist Y. Regeer) Werder Bremen
9. 90+3' Goal M. Sabitzer Borussia Dortmund

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Borussia Dortmund to score about 1.5 more and playing at home is worth roughly 18% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 5855 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.18× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: Borussia Dortmund won 3, 3 drawn, Werder Bremen won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 2-0 (10%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Borussia Dortmund attack scores 98% more than average, against Werder Bremen defence, which lets in 43% fewer than average: 2.30 goals (an average side here: 2.05)
• Werder Bremen attack scores 49% more than average, against Borussia Dortmund defence, which lets in 58% fewer than average: 1.10 goals (an average side here: 1.74)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Borussia Dortmund 2.46, Werder Bremen 0.94.

Ratings from 108 matches for Borussia Dortmund and 106 for Werder Bremen, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Werder Bremen have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
• Both teams have scored in 8 of Werder Bremen’s last 10.
• Borussia Dortmund score 2.3 a game — 80th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 2–0 10.1%
2. 2–1 9.5%
3. 1–1 8.7%
4. 3–0 8.3%
5. 3–1 7.8%
6. 1–0 7.2%
7. 4–0 5.1%
8. 4–1 4.8%