Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Karlsruher SC match stats & report

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Karlsruher SC match statistics

• 36% Ball possession 64%
• 0.77 Expected goals (xG) 0.91
• 4 Total shots 15
• 3 Shots on target 4
• 1 Shots off target 5
• 0 Blocked shots 6
• 2 Shots inside the box 7
• 1 Corners 6
• 7 Fouls 11
• 0 Offsides 1
• 0 Yellow cards 0
• 1 Red cards 0
• 331 Passes 591
• 4 Goalkeeper saves 1

Goals and cards

1. 7' Goal R. Hack (assist J. Scally) Borussia Mönchengladbach
2. 39' Red card P. Sander Borussia Mönchengladbach
3. 49' Goal L. Ullrich (assist R. Hack) Borussia Mönchengladbach

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Borussia Mönchengladbach to score about 1.5 more and playing at home is worth roughly 18% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 5855 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.18× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last meeting: Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1, 0 drawn, Karlsruher SC won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 2-1 (9%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• Borussia Mönchengladbach has a new coach, A. Blessin, for its last 3 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Karlsruher SC has a new coach, M. Senft, for its last 6 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Borussia Mönchengladbach attack scores 54% more than average, against Karlsruher SC defence, which lets in 21% fewer than average: 2.51 goals (an average side here: 2.05)
• Karlsruher SC attack scores 31% more than average, against Borussia Mönchengladbach defence, which lets in 40% fewer than average: 1.37 goals (an average side here: 1.74)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.66, Karlsruher SC 1.21.

Ratings from 109 matches for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 106 for Karlsruher SC, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Karlsruher SC score 0.9 a game — 8th percentile in this competition.
• Karlsruher SC have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
• Karlsruher SC win 7 corners a game — 74th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 2–1 8.9%
2. 3–1 7.9%
3. 1–1 7.6%
4. 2–0 7.4%
5. 3–0 6.6%
6. 2–2 5.4%
7. 4–1 5.3%
8. 3–2 4.8%