Don Benito vs Extremadura 1924 result

Goals and cards

1. 28' Yellow card A. Pavon Don Benito
2. 28' Yellow card L. Lecic Extremadura 1924
3. 35' Goal G. Santamaria (assist Pavon Lolo) Don Benito
4. 44' Goal G. Santamaria (assist A. Lopez) Don Benito
5. 50' Yellow card Don Benito
6. 61' Yellow card Don Benito
7. 75' Penalty scored Dieguito Extremadura 1924
8. 78' Yellow card L. Morcillo Extremadura 1924
9. 81' Goal L. Morcillo Extremadura 1924
10. 90+3' Yellow card Iker Burgos Extremadura 1924
11. 90+5' Red card Don Benito
12. 95' Yellow card Dieguito Extremadura 1924
13. 96' Yellow card E. Attipoe Don Benito
14. 97' Goal Iker Burgos Extremadura 1924
15. 118' Yellow card L. Morcillo Extremadura 1924
16. 118' Red card L. Morcillo Extremadura 1924
17. 120+2' Goal Dieguito (assist Rodri) Extremadura 1924

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last meeting: Don Benito won 0, 0 drawn, Extremadura 1924 won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Extremadura 1924 has a new coach, David Rocha, for its last 3 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Don Benito attack scores 23% more than average, against Extremadura 1924 defence, which lets in 34% fewer than average: 1.39 goals (an average side here: 1.71)
• Extremadura 1924 attack scores 50% more than average, against Don Benito defence, which lets in 27% fewer than average: 1.43 goals (an average side here: 1.29)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Don Benito 1.38, Extremadura 1924 1.43.

Ratings from 103 matches for Don Benito and 80 for Extremadura 1924, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Extremadura 1924 score 2.2 a game — 98th percentile in this competition.
• Don Benito score 2.7 a game — 96th percentile in this competition.
• Don Benito have kept 6 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 13.4%
2. 1–2 8.5%
3. 2–1 8.2%
4. 0–0 7.6%
5. 0–1 7.1%
6. 1–0 6.8%
7. 0–2 6.2%
8. 2–2 5.9%