Llanera vs Ponferradina match stats & report

Llanera vs Ponferradina match statistics

• 2 Yellow cards 4
• 0 Red cards 0

Goals and cards

1. 14' Yellow card Unai Sabroso Ponferradina
2. 39' Goal Serigne Faye Ponferradina
3. 42' Yellow card C. Calderon Ponferradina
4. 42' Yellow card Daniel Collado Llanera
5. 54' Yellow card Ntji Tounkara Ponferradina
6. 61' Yellow card David Andújar Ponferradina
7. 82' Goal Longo Llanera
8. 84' Yellow card Mikel Busto Llanera

Penalty shoot-out: 3–5

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Ponferradina to score about 0.7 more.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 26887 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 0-1 (14%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Ponferradina has a new coach, Mehdi Nafti, for its last 6 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Llanera attack scores about the average, against Ponferradina defence, which lets in 51% fewer than average: 0.83 goals (an average side here: 1.71)
• Ponferradina attack scores 21% more than average, against Llanera defence, which lets in 10% fewer than average: 1.41 goals (an average side here: 1.29)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Llanera 0.75, Ponferradina 1.49.

Ratings from 104 matches for Llanera and 129 for Ponferradina, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Llanera score 2 a game — 83rd percentile in this competition.
• Llanera have kept 5 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–1 14.3%
2. 1–1 13.4%
3. 0–0 12.2%
4. 0–2 11.8%
5. 1–2 8.9%
6. 1–0 6.4%
7. 0–3 5.9%
8. 2–1 4.5%