Ciudad de Lucena vs Rayo Majadahonda match stats & report
0–1 Full time
Ciudad de Lucena stats & fixtures · Rayo Majadahonda stats & fixtures
Ciudad de Lucena lost to Rayo Majadahonda 0–1 in the Copa del Rey (Round of 128) on 27 October 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Ciudad de Lucena 52%, the draw 30% and Rayo Majadahonda 19%.
Ciudad de Lucena vs Rayo Majadahonda match statistics
- 0 Yellow cards 2
- 0 Red cards 0
Goals and cards
- 25' Yellow card Neco Celorio Rayo Majadahonda
- 80' Yellow card A. Amaro Rayo Majadahonda
- 82' Yellow card Ciudad de Lucena
- 89' Yellow card Rayo Majadahonda
- 90+3' Goal David Del Pozo (assist Neco Celorio) Rayo Majadahonda
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Called it: over 0.5 goals, 88% before kick-off
- 52%Ciudad de Lucena fair odds 1.93
- 30%Draw fair odds 3.38
- 19%Rayo Majadahonda fair odds 5.34
Most likely score 1-1 (13.7%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Ciudad de Lucena to score about 0.7 more and playing at home is worth roughly 32% in this competition.
Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Ciudad de Lucena
Attack 1.35 · Defence 0.61
Last five: DWWWW, scored 11, conceded 4
Rayo Majadahonda
Attack 1.11 · Defence 0.61
Last five: WLLLL, scored 2, conceded 5
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (14%). Confidence: Low.
Flags and warnings
- Ciudad de Lucena has a new coach, Dimas Carrasco Bellido, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Ciudad de Lucena attack scores 35% more than average, against Rayo Majadahonda defence, which lets in 39% fewer than average: 1.40 goals (an average side here: 1.71)
- Rayo Majadahonda attack scores 11% more than average, against Ciudad de Lucena defence, which lets in 39% fewer than average: 0.88 goals (an average side here: 1.29)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Ciudad de Lucena 1.48, Rayo Majadahonda 0.80.
Ratings from 111 matches for Ciudad de Lucena and 111 for Rayo Majadahonda, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Ciudad de Lucena score 2.2 a game — 91st percentile in this competition.
- Rayo Majadahonda score 0.5 a game — 13th percentile in this competition.
- Both teams have scored in 2 of Rayo Majadahonda’s last 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 88% | 1.13 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 1.47 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.51 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 5.08 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 8% | 12.27 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 12% | 8.48 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 32% | 3.13 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 80% | 1.24 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 92% | 1.09 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 44% | 2.27 |
| Both teams to score: No | 56% | 1.79 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 13.7%
- 1–0 13.6%
- 0–0 11.8%
- 2–0 11.2%
- 2–1 9.0%
- 0–1 6.6%
- 3–0 5.5%
- 1–2 4.9%
Team news & lineups
Ciudad de Lucena
Bench Alejandro Benítez , Diego Canty , Hugo Caballero Garrido, Adrián Valenzuela Estévez , Rafa Gálvez , Pablo Morillo Alfaro, Hugo Fuentes , Joselillo , Mario Linares Jimenez
Rayo Majadahonda
Bench Ismael Alvarez Martin , Miguel Prieto , Juan Durán , Alejandro Sotillos , Daniel Gallardo , Raúl Hernández , Guillermo Martin , Gonzalo Calçada , Choco
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
Ciudad de Lucena at home
8–0–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.2 per game
- Conceded
- 0.9 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Rayo Majadahonda away
3–2–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.5 per game
- Conceded
- 0.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 94% | 1.07 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 81% | 1.23 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 81% | 1.23 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 77% | 1.29 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 73% | 1.37 |
| Home/Away double chance | 70% | 1.42 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 55% | 1.81 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 52% | 1.93 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 48% | 2.07 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 48% | 2.07 |
| Home clean sheet | 45% | 2.23 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 44% | 2.30 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 27% | 3.67 |
| Away clean sheet | 23% | 4.39 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 19% | 5.22 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 19% | 5.34 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 19% | 5.37 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 6% | 16.11 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 5% | 21.03 |